Accrington ST 0-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to Wham Stadium to face Accrington ST in League Two, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Accrington ST's overall League Two record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Accrington ST at Wham Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Wham Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Crawley Town (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.60 for Crawley Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Accrington ST lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Accrington ST — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 47% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 50% | Crawley Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.37 xG and Crawley Town 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.944 / defence 0.891 | Crawley Town attack 0.935 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.316. Data: 32 Accrington ST games / 78 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 42% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 29%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Crawley Town 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Accrington ST 30% | Crawley Town 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 42% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Accrington ST 1.37 / Crawley Town 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.944 / def 0.891 | Crawley Town attack 0.935 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Crawley Town xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Crawley Town kick off?
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Accrington ST 0 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Accrington ST vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Crawley Town part of?
Accrington ST vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 42% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Accrington ST and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Accrington ST and Crawley Town in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Accrington ST's attack rating (0.94) and Crawley Town's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.94x) against Accrington ST's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 32/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.50
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.46
1.10
Crawley Town xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Accrington ST and 1.10 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Accrington ST come into this having played 78 games, going 24W 18D 36L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.18 PPG from 78 outings (25W 17D 36L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.18 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Accrington ST's home form reads 15W 6D 17L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.79 points per game from 38 outings (7W 9D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Accrington ST come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Accrington ST are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.23 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 24W 18D 36L in their last 78 games (1.15 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 25W 17D 36L in their last 78 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Crawley Town away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.34 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
2
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Crawley Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Accrington ST 3-3 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 45%, Crawley Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Accrington ST) and 50% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Accrington ST have failed to score in 32% of games; Crawley Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 50% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Accrington ST's recent games and 50% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crawley Town defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Accrington ST 0-1 at Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.37 xG and Crawley Town 1.10 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Accrington ST fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against Crawley Town attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 32/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 42% | Draw 29% | Crawley Town 29%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 50%, Crawley Town 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.15 PPG, Crawley Town 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.