Wigan 1-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wigan host Burton Albion at DW Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wigan — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wigan have posted 6W 1D 3L at DW Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DW Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Wigan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Wigan, 1 for Burton Albion and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Burton Albion winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wigan in-play tendencies (85 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (85 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 55% versus Burton Albion 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 40% | Burton Albion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.19 xG and Burton Albion 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 0.897 / defence 0.807 | Burton Albion attack 0.737 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.185. Data: 39 Wigan games / 85 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 48% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 22%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Burton Albion 4.55. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Burton Albion's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 30% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 48% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Wigan 1.19 / Burton Albion 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 0.897 / def 0.807 | Burton Albion attack 0.737 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Wigan (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Burton Albion xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Burton Albion kick off?
Wigan vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Wigan 1 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Wigan vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Burton Albion part of?
Wigan vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 48% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Wigan and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Burton Albion?
Record (3 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Wigan and Burton Albion in?
Wigan (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wigan's attack at 0.90x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
48%
2.10
31%
3.27
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Wigan xG
Total xG
1.89
0.70
Burton Albion xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Wigan and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Wigan and 0.70 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wigan come into this having played 85 games, going 27W 22D 36L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.12 PPG from 85 outings (25W 20D 40L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wigan on 1.21 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wigan's home form reads 17W 9D 17L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.91 points per game from 43 outings (10W 9D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wigan are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.04 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 27W 22D 36L in their last 85 games (1.21 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 25W 20D 40L in their last 85 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Burton Albion away?
Wigan's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.40 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 29 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wigan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Wigan's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Wigan
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Wigan have won 3, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2025, when Burton Albion 0-2 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Burton Albion?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 46%, Burton Albion 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Wigan) and 54% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Wigan have failed to score in 26% of games; Burton Albion in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Wigan's recent matches and 49% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Wigan's recent games and 54% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 41, as Wigan and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.19 xG and Burton Albion 0.70 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 0.90 / defence 0.81 against Burton Albion attack 0.74 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 48% | Draw 31% | Burton Albion 22%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 40%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (85 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (85 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.21 PPG, Burton Albion 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.