Wigan 3-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wigan vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Accrington ST travel to DW Stadium to take on Wigan. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 April 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Wigan's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at DW Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Accrington ST have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Accrington ST away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Wigan carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wigan, 0 for Accrington ST and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 4–1 with Wigan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Wigan in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 60% versus Accrington ST 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wigan 50% | Accrington ST 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.92 xG and Accrington ST 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.083 / defence 1.080 | Accrington ST attack 0.537 / defence 1.599. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.165. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.599 — this is suppressing Wigan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Wigan games / 40 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 66% | Draw 22% | Accrington ST 12%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Accrington ST 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Wigan (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 60% | Accrington ST 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 66% | Draw 22% | Accrington ST 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 42% | xG Wigan 1.92 / Accrington ST 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.083 / def 1.080 | Accrington ST attack 0.537 / def 1.599 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Wigan (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Accrington ST xG
42%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Accrington ST kick off?
Wigan vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Accrington ST?
Wigan 3 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Wigan vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Accrington ST part of?
Wigan vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 66% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Wigan and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Accrington ST?
Record (1 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 0W.
What form are Wigan and Accrington ST in?
Wigan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Accrington ST (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wigan's attack at 1.08x the league average against Accrington ST's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Wigan's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
66%
1.50
22%
4.63
12%
8.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.59
0.68
Accrington ST xG
1.50
66%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
8.38
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
15%
6.80
Win to Nil
34%
2.96
2%
57.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Wigan and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Wigan and 0.68 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Wigan have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 24W 8D 6L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Accrington ST's form line: 13W 9D 16L from 38 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Accrington ST.
Venue Form
On home soil, Wigan have posted 2.00 PPG from 18 outings (11W 3D 4L).
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 3W 4D 11L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Accrington ST's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wigan are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.29 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 24W 8D 6L in their last 38 games (2.11 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Accrington ST away?
Wigan's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 2.00 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Wigan or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Wigan
0
Draws
0
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Accrington ST?
From 2 meetings on record, Wigan have won 2, Accrington ST have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2022, when Wigan 3-0 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Wigan and Accrington ST?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Accrington ST see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 61%, Accrington ST 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Wigan) and 44% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Wigan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Accrington ST in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Wigan's recent matches and 33% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Wigan's recent games and 44% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wigan run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Accrington ST.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Accrington ST 3-0 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.92 xG and Accrington ST 0.68 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wigan beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Accrington ST attack 0.54 / defence 1.60, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 66% | Draw 22% | Accrington ST 12%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 50%, Accrington ST 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Accrington ST's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.