Stockport County vs Notts County – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Stockport County at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Notts County encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Notts County in League One, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2027 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Stockport County have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Edgeley Park, Stockport County have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Notts County's overall League One record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Notts County's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Stockport County's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Notts County's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Stockport County 2W, Notts County 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2024, ended 5–2 with Stockport County winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Notts County 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 59% | Notts County 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.86 xG and Notts County 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.225 / defence 0.990 | Notts County attack 0.685 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.292. Data: 57 Stockport County games / 10 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 60% | Draw 24% | Notts County 16%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Notts County 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stockport County 60% | Notts County 40%.

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