Stevenage 1-0 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stevenage (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stevenage face Wigan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Wigan travel to Broadhall Way to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Broadhall Way, Stevenage have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Broadhall Way. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at Broadhall Way than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wigan stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 League One matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Wigan have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Wigan have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Stevenage carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Stevenage, 1 for Wigan and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Wigan trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 47% versus Wigan 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 38% | Wigan 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.42 xG and Wigan 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.014 / defence 0.944 | Wigan attack 0.813 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.336. Data: 53 Stevenage games / 53 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 44% | Draw 30% | Wigan 25%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Wigan 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Wigan 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Broadhall Way • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 44% | Draw 30% | Wigan 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Stevenage 1.42 / Wigan 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.014 / def 0.944 | Wigan attack 0.813 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Wigan xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Wigan kick off?
Stevenage vs Wigan kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Broadhall Way.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Wigan?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Wigan.
Where is Stevenage vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Broadhall Way.
What competition is Stevenage vs Wigan part of?
Stevenage vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 44% chance of winning, Wigan a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stevenage and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Wigan?
Record (6 meetings): Stevenage 3W | Draws 2 | Wigan 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Wigan in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Wigan (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stevenage's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.29
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.44
1.02
Wigan xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
6%
16.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.02 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage come into this having played 53 games, going 21W 15D 17L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.13 PPG from 53 outings (15W 15D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wigan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.47 PPG, Wigan on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stevenage's home form reads 14W 8D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 0.77 points per game from 26 outings (3W 11D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.02 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Wigan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Wigan in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 21W 15D 17L in their last 53 games (1.47 PPG), while Wigan have gone 15W 15D 23L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Wigan away?
Stevenage's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.92 PPG; Wigan away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Wigan in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Wigan runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stevenage have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Stevenage's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Stevenage
2
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Wigan?
From 7 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Wigan have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Wigan?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 46%, Wigan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Stevenage) and 42% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Wigan in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stevenage's recent matches and 62% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Stevenage's recent games and 42% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Wigan tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Wigan in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Wigan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Wigan 1-0 at Broadhall Way, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.42 xG and Wigan 1.02 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wigan landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Wigan attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 44% | Draw 30% | Wigan 25%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 38%, Wigan 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wigan's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.47 PPG, Wigan 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.