Shrewsbury 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stevenage make the trip to The Croud Meadow to face Shrewsbury in League One, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shrewsbury's overall League One record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shrewsbury's home record at The Croud Meadow: 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Shrewsbury against 1.20 for Stevenage. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Stevenage hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
It is worth noting that Stevenage have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Shrewsbury — key trading statistics (77 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Stevenage — key trading statistics (77 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 44% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 43% | Stevenage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.17 xG and Stevenage 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.941 / defence 1.212 | Stevenage attack 0.726 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.190. Data: 78 Shrewsbury games / 77 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 32%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Stevenage 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shrewsbury as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 70% | Stevenage 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Shrewsbury 1.17 / Stevenage 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.941 / def 1.212 | Stevenage attack 0.726 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Stevenage xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Stevenage kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Shrewsbury 0 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Stevenage part of?
Shrewsbury vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 38% chance of winning, Stevenage a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shrewsbury and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Stevenage?
Record (3 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 3W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Stevenage in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.94) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.73x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 78/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.35
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.22
1.05
Stevenage xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.05 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 19W 15D 43L from 77 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 30W 22D 25L across 77 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stevenage by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 11W 5D 21L from 37 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 12W 11D 14L across 37 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.12 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 19W 15D 43L in their last 77 games (0.94 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 30W 22D 25L in their last 77 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Stevenage away?
Stevenage's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.03 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Stevenage in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Stevenage have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 0, Stevenage have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Shrewsbury 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 46%, Stevenage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Shrewsbury) and 46% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 40%; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 40% of games; Stevenage in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 40% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 46% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Stevenage tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.17 xG and Stevenage 1.05 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against Stevenage attack 0.73 / defence 0.97, drawn from 78/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 38% | Draw 30% | Stevenage 32%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 43%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stevenage's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.