Shrewsbury 0-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 10 as Shrewsbury welcome Charlton to The Croud Meadow. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at The Croud Meadow this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Charlton — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shrewsbury 1.20 PPG, Charlton 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shrewsbury, 3 for Charlton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 0–6 with Charlton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 41% versus Charlton 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 44% | Charlton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.11 xG and Charlton 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.852 / defence 1.076 | Charlton attack 0.894 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.134. Data: 54 Shrewsbury games / 54 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 30% | Charlton 34%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shrewsbury as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 50% | Charlton 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 30% | Charlton 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Shrewsbury 1.11 / Charlton 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.852 / def 1.076 | Charlton attack 0.894 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Charlton xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Charlton kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Shrewsbury 0 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Charlton part of?
Shrewsbury vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 35% chance of winning, Charlton a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shrewsbury and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
Record (4 meetings): Shrewsbury 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 3W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Charlton in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Charlton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 0.85x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
35%
2.83
30%
3.31
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.20
1.09
Charlton xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.09 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 20W 8D 26L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 19W 15D 20L from 54 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 1.26 PPG, Charlton on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (13W 3D 10L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 7W 8D 11L from 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.50 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 63%.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Charlton in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 20W 8D 26L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Charlton have gone 19W 15D 20L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Charlton away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.62 PPG; Charlton away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Charlton won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Charlton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 50%, Charlton 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Shrewsbury) and 46% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 38% of games; Charlton in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 54% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 46% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Charlton tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Charlton in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shrewsbury's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 10, as Shrewsbury and Charlton drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.11 xG and Charlton 1.09 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Charlton attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 35% | Draw 30% | Charlton 34%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 44%, Charlton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.26 PPG, Charlton 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.