Sheffield Wednesday 1-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sheffield Wednesday at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sheffield Wednesday host Derby at Hillsborough in League One, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sheffield Wednesday — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sheffield Wednesday have posted 8W 2D 0L at Hillsborough — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hillsborough. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sheffield Wednesday are significantly better at Hillsborough than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sheffield Wednesday 1.50 PPG, Derby 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, Derby 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sheffield Wednesday trading profile (91 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Derby trading profile (91 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sheffield Wednesday 48% versus Derby 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sheffield Wednesday 45% | Derby 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sheffield Wednesday 1.97 xG and Derby 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.309 / defence 0.741 | Derby attack 1.060 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.134. Sheffield Wednesday carry an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 91 Sheffield Wednesday games / 45 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 62% | Draw 21% | Derby 16%. Fair-value odds: Sheffield Wednesday 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Derby 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sheffield Wednesday (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sheffield Wednesday 40% | Derby 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: Hillsborough • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday 62% | Draw 21% | Derby 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Sheffield Wednesday 1.97 / Derby 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.309 / def 0.741 | Derby attack 1.060 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Derby xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby kick off?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Hillsborough.
What was the final score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby?
Sheffield Wednesday 1 - 0 Derby.
Where is Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Hillsborough.
What competition is Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby part of?
Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Sheffield Wednesday a 62% chance of winning, Derby a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sheffield Wednesday and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): Sheffield Wednesday 0W | Draws 1 | Derby 0W.
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Derby in?
Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Derby (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sheffield Wednesday's attack rating (1.31) and Derby's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Sheffield Wednesday's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 91/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
62%
1.60
21%
4.66
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Sheffield Wednesday xG
Total xG
2.86
0.89
Derby xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
2%
44.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Sheffield Wednesday and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Sheffield Wednesday and 0.89 for Derby, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sheffield Wednesday's recent record stands at 50W 25D 16L from 91 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 35W 26D 30L across 91 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sheffield Wednesday by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sheffield Wednesday have managed 30W 12D 3L from 45 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 11W 13D 21L across 45 trips, a 1.02 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sheffield Wednesday come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sheffield Wednesday are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.23 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 91 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sheffield Wednesday
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sheffield Wednesday and Derby in coming into this match?
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 50W 25D 16L in their last 91 games (1.92 PPG), while Derby have gone 35W 26D 30L in their last 91 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sheffield Wednesday at home or Derby away?
Sheffield Wednesday's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sheffield Wednesday at home: 2.27 PPG; Derby away: 1.02 PPG.
Have Sheffield Wednesday or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sheffield Wednesday have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Derby in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Derby go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2025, when Derby won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sheffield Wednesday's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sheffield Wednesday
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sheffield Wednesday and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Sheffield Wednesday have won 3, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sheffield Wednesday and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Derby 2-1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Who has won more matches between Sheffield Wednesday and Derby?
Sheffield Wednesday have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sheffield Wednesday 49%, Derby 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sheffield Wednesday) and 38% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Derby in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sheffield Wednesday home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sheffield Wednesday play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent matches and 47% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sheffield Wednesday vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sheffield Wednesday's recent games and 38% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sheffield Wednesday and Derby tend to score early?
Sheffield Wednesday have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Derby in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sheffield Wednesday edge out Derby 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Wednesday beat Derby 1-0 at Hillsborough, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sheffield Wednesday 1.97 xG and Derby 0.89 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sheffield Wednesday fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Derby landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.31 / defence 0.74 against Derby attack 1.06 / defence 1.13, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sheffield Wednesday 62% | Draw 21% | Derby 16%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sheffield Wednesday 45%, Derby 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derby's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Sheffield Wednesday (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.