Rotherham 0-0 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rotherham vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 25 as Rotherham welcome Mansfield Town to Aesseal New York Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rotherham stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rotherham's home record at Aesseal New York Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Mansfield Town — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League One this season, Mansfield Town have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rotherham 1.00 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rotherham, 2 for Mansfield Town and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Mansfield Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rotherham trading profile (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Mansfield Town trading profile (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 49% versus Mansfield Town 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 49% | Mansfield Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 0.97 xG and Mansfield Town 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.768 / defence 1.197 | Mansfield Town attack 0.855 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.162. Rotherham's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 79 Rotherham games / 78 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rotherham 30% | Draw 29% | Mansfield Town 41%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Mansfield Town 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rotherham 50% | Mansfield Town 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rotherham vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Aesseal New York Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rotherham 30% | Draw 29% | Mansfield Town 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Rotherham 0.97 / Mansfield Town 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Rotherham attack 0.768 / def 1.197 | Mansfield Town attack 0.855 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Rotherham xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Mansfield Town xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rotherham vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Rotherham vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at Aesseal New York Stadium.
What was the final score in Rotherham vs Mansfield Town?
Rotherham 0 - 0 Mansfield Town.
Where is Rotherham vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Aesseal New York Stadium.
What competition is Rotherham vs Mansfield Town part of?
Rotherham vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Rotherham vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Rotherham a 30% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rotherham vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rotherham and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Rotherham vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Mansfield Town?
Record (3 meetings): Rotherham 0W | Draws 1 | Mansfield Town 2W.
What form are Rotherham and Mansfield Town in?
Rotherham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rotherham's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Rotherham's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
30%
3.34
29%
3.42
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Rotherham xG
Total xG
2.16
1.19
Mansfield Town xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.7 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rotherham vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rotherham and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Rotherham and 1.19 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Rotherham vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rotherham's recent record stands at 25W 18D 35L from 78 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 25W 19D 34L across 78 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rotherham on 1.19 PPG, Mansfield Town on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rotherham have managed 16W 9D 13L from 38 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 11W 10D 17L across 38 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rotherham are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.27 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rotherham
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rotherham and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Rotherham have gone 25W 18D 35L in their last 78 games (1.19 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 25W 19D 34L in their last 78 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rotherham at home or Mansfield Town away?
Rotherham's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rotherham at home: 1.50 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rotherham and Mansfield Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rotherham's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rotherham
2
Draws
2
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rotherham and Mansfield Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Rotherham have won 0, Mansfield Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rotherham and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Rotherham 0-0 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Rotherham and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rotherham 58%, Mansfield Town 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rotherham) and 55% (Mansfield Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rotherham home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rotherham play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Rotherham's games and 60% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rotherham vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rotherham's matches and 55% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Rotherham and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Rotherham have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rotherham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aesseal New York Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Rotherham and Mansfield Town drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rotherham 0.97 xG and Mansfield Town 1.19 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rotherham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Mansfield Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rotherham attack 0.77 / defence 1.20 against Mansfield Town attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rotherham 30% | Draw 29% | Mansfield Town 41%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rotherham 49%, Mansfield Town 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rotherham's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rotherham 1.19 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.