Port Vale 0-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Plymouth make the trip to Vale Park to face Port Vale in League One, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port Vale have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale at Vale Park this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Vale Park this season.
Plymouth (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Port Vale, 1.00 for Plymouth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Port Vale 1W, Plymouth 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 1–3 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 44% versus Plymouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 43% | Plymouth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.14 xG and Plymouth 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.591 / defence 1.184 | Plymouth attack 0.974 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.038. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.591 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing Port Vale's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Port Vale games / 15 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 34% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 37%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Plymouth 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plymouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 40% | Plymouth 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 34% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Port Vale 1.14 / Plymouth 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.591 / def 1.184 | Plymouth attack 0.974 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Plymouth xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Plymouth kick off?
Port Vale vs Plymouth kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Plymouth?
Port Vale 0 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Port Vale vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Plymouth part of?
Port Vale vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 34% chance of winning, Plymouth a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Port Vale and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Port Vale 1W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Port Vale and Plymouth in?
Port Vale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.59x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.97x) against Port Vale's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
34%
2.90
28%
3.56
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.33
1.20
Plymouth xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.20 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 24W 19D 18L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth's form line: 15W 14D 32L from 61 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Port Vale are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Plymouth.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (13W 10D 8L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 4W 6D 21L from 31 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port Vale are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.13 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Defensively: Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 24W 19D 18L in their last 61 games (1.49 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 15W 14D 32L in their last 61 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Plymouth away?
Port Vale's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.58 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Plymouth in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Port Vale
0
Draws
3
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Plymouth have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Plymouth 2-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 42%, Plymouth 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Port Vale) and 52% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 39% of games; Plymouth in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Port Vale's recent matches and 36% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Port Vale's recent games and 52% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Plymouth tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Port Vale 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Port Vale 0-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.14 xG and Plymouth 1.20 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Port Vale fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.59 / defence 1.18 against Plymouth attack 0.97 / defence 1.43, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 34% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 37%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 43%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plymouth's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port Vale arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.