Port Vale 1-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port Vale and Derby meet at Vale Park in League One, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 24 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Port Vale (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale at Vale Park this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Derby's overall League One record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Derby arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Port Vale, 0 for Derby and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Port Vale winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 50% versus Derby 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 46% | Derby 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 0.83 xG and Derby 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.754 / defence 1.081 | Derby attack 0.971 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.130. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Port Vale games / 26 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 26% | Draw 31% | Derby 44%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Derby 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 40% | Derby 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 26% | Draw 31% | Derby 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Port Vale 0.83 / Derby 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.754 / def 1.081 | Derby attack 0.971 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Derby (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Derby xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Derby kick off?
Port Vale vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 24 January 2023 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Derby?
Port Vale 1 - 2 Derby.
Where is Port Vale vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Derby part of?
Port Vale vs Derby is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 26% chance of winning, Derby a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Port Vale and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): Port Vale 1W | Draws 0 | Derby 0W.
What form are Port Vale and Derby in?
Port Vale (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Derby (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Port Vale's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.97x) against Port Vale's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
26%
3.91
31%
3.26
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.02
1.19
Derby xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 15.7 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.19 for Derby, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 34W 16D 22L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 27W 21D 24L from 72 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Port Vale against 1.42 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (17W 8D 10L).
On the road, Derby have gone 7W 12D 16L from 35 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port Vale are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.15 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Derby in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 34W 16D 22L in their last 72 games (1.64 PPG), while Derby have gone 27W 21D 24L in their last 72 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Derby away?
Port Vale's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.69 PPG; Derby away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Derby in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Derby have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Port Vale
0
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Derby have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Derby 3-0 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 46%, Derby 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Port Vale) and 29% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Derby in 31%; Port Vale have failed to score in 26% of games; Derby in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Port Vale's recent matches and 37% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Port Vale's recent games and 29% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Derby tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derby in 51% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Port Vale 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Port Vale 1-2 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 0.83 xG and Derby 1.19 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derby outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.75 / defence 1.08 against Derby attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 26% | Draw 31% | Derby 44%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 46%, Derby 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.64 PPG, Derby 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.