Plymouth 1-1 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Crewe meet at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Plymouth have collected 2.00 PPG across 9 League One outings this season: 5W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.56 goals per game, with 0.78 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.78 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 3W 2D 0L at Home Park — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crewe (all games): 1W 3D 5L across 9 League One outings this term — 0.67 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe away from home this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Plymouth's 2.00 PPG return is 1.33 points per game ahead of Crewe's 0.67 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Crewe half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 44% versus Crewe 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Plymouth 44% | Crewe 11%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.44 xG and Crewe 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.133 / defence 0.947 | Crewe attack 0.569 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.212. Crewe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Plymouth games / 9 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 56% | Draw 27% | Crewe 17%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Crewe 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 60% | Crewe 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Crewe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 56% | Draw 27% | Crewe 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 37% | xG Plymouth 1.44 / Crewe 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.133 / def 0.947 | Crewe attack 0.569 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Crewe xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Crewe kick off?
Plymouth vs Crewe kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 September 2021 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Crewe?
Plymouth 1 - 1 Crewe.
Where is Plymouth vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Crewe part of?
Plymouth vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 56% chance of winning, Crewe a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Plymouth and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Crewe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Crewe in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-1L in 9 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 0.78 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Crewe (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Crewe's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.57x) against Plymouth's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
56%
1.78
27%
3.71
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.09
0.65
Crewe xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
4%
24.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 11.6 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.65 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Crewe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Plymouth have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 5W 3D 1L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crewe's form line: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crewe.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
On the road, Crewe have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Crewe in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 games (2.00 PPG), while Crewe have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Crewe away?
Plymouth's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.20 PPG; Crewe away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Crewe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Crewe in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Plymouth
1
Draws
0
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Crewe?
From 2 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Crewe have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2022, when Crewe 1-4 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Crewe?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 60%, Crewe 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Plymouth and 0% for Crewe.
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Crewe in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Plymouth's recent matches and 40% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Plymouth's recent games and 0% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Crewe tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Crewe in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth and Crewe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth and Crewe finished level at 1-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 10, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.44 xG and Crewe 0.65 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.13 / defence 0.95 against Crewe attack 0.57 / defence 1.24, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 56% | Draw 27% | Crewe 17%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 44%, Crewe 11%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Crewe's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.