Plymouth 5-2 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Cardiff fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Cardiff meet at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Home Park this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Home Park this season.
Cardiff have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cardiff away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Plymouth, 2 for Cardiff and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 0–4 with Cardiff winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cardiff half-time and goal-timing data (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 53% versus Cardiff 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 56% | Cardiff 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.95 xG and Cardiff 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.766 / defence 1.335 | Cardiff attack 1.175 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.121. Plymouth's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Plymouth games / 32 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 20% | Draw 23% | Cardiff 56%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Cardiff 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Cardiff (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 50% | Cardiff 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Cardiff | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 20% | Draw 23% | Cardiff 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Plymouth 0.95 / Cardiff 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.766 / def 1.335 | Cardiff attack 1.175 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Cardiff xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Cardiff kick off?
Plymouth vs Cardiff kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Plymouth 5 - 2 Cardiff.
Where is Plymouth vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Cardiff part of?
Plymouth vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 20% chance of winning, Cardiff a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Plymouth and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cardiff?
Record (5 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 2 | Cardiff 2W.
What form are Plymouth and Cardiff in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Cardiff (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.77x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (1.18x) against Plymouth's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
20%
4.94
23%
4.27
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.71
1.76
Cardiff xG
4.94
20%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
3%
28.70
22%
4.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.7 | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.76 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 78 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 24W 17D 37L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Cardiff's form line: 30W 23D 25L from 78 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Plymouth against 1.45 for Cardiff. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.34 PPG from 38 outings (14W 9D 15L).
On the road, Cardiff have gone 9W 16D 13L from 38 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.41 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 24W 17D 37L in their last 78 games (1.14 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 30W 23D 25L in their last 78 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Cardiff away?
Plymouth's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.34 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cardiff won 5-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Plymouth
2
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cardiff?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Cardiff have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Plymouth 5-2 Cardiff.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 66%, Cardiff 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Plymouth) and 50% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Plymouth's games and 63% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Plymouth's matches and 50% of Cardiff's.
Do Plymouth and Cardiff tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Cardiff 5-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.95 xG and Cardiff 1.76 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.77 / defence 1.33 against Cardiff attack 1.18 / defence 0.89, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 20% | Draw 23% | Cardiff 56%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 56%, Cardiff 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cardiff's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.14 PPG, Cardiff 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.