Plymouth 3-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 44 sees Cambridge United travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Plymouth's home record at Home Park: 8W 1D 1L from 10 League One appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Cambridge United have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Plymouth have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Plymouth, 1 for Cambridge United and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (88 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (88 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 48% versus Cambridge United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 49% | Cambridge United 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.76 xG and Cambridge United 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.144 / defence 0.906 | Cambridge United attack 0.734 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.115. Data: 88 Plymouth games / 88 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 15%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Cambridge United 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 50% | Cambridge United 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 61% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG Plymouth 1.76 / Cambridge United 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.144 / def 0.906 | Cambridge United attack 0.734 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cambridge United xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Cambridge United kick off?
Plymouth vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Cambridge United?
Plymouth 3 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Plymouth vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Cambridge United part of?
Plymouth vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 61% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Plymouth and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cambridge United?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 2 | Cambridge United 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Cambridge United in?
Plymouth (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.14) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/88 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
61%
1.64
25%
4.08
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.50
0.74
Cambridge United xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
2%
40.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.74 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Cambridge United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth come into this having played 88 games, going 50W 19D 19L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 1.11 PPG from 88 outings (26W 20D 42L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plymouth's home form reads 31W 5D 7L across 43 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambridge United have taken 0.88 points per game from 43 outings (10W 8D 25L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.05 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Cambridge United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 50W 19D 19L in their last 88 games (1.92 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 26W 20D 42L in their last 88 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Cambridge United away?
Plymouth's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.28 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Cambridge United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Plymouth's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
2
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Cambridge United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Plymouth 3-1 Cambridge United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 40%, Cambridge United 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Plymouth) and 51% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Cambridge United in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Plymouth's recent matches and 51% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Plymouth's recent games and 51% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cambridge United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Cambridge United 3-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.76 xG and Cambridge United 0.74 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against Cambridge United attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 88/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 61% | Draw 25% | Cambridge United 15%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 49%, Cambridge United 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Cambridge United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.