Plymouth 2-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Plymouth at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 12 as Plymouth welcome Burton Albion to Home Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 3W 3D 0L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Burton Albion trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Burton Albion 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 46% | Burton Albion 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.32 xG and Burton Albion 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.000 / defence 0.948 | Burton Albion attack 0.528 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.282. Data: 11 Plymouth games / 11 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 53% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 18%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Burton Albion 5.56. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Burton Albion's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 67% | Burton Albion 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 53% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 35% | xG Plymouth 1.32 / Burton Albion 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.000 / def 0.948 | Burton Albion attack 0.528 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Burton Albion xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Burton Albion kick off?
Plymouth vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Plymouth 2 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Plymouth vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Burton Albion part of?
Plymouth vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 53% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Plymouth and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Burton Albion in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.48
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Plymouth xG
Total xG
1.96
0.64
Burton Albion xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
5%
20.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.64 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 5W 5D 1L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion's form line: 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.82 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Burton Albion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.91 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Burton Albion away?
Plymouth's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.80 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plymouth have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Plymouth won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Plymouth
2
Draws
0
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 4, Burton Albion have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Plymouth 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Burton Albion?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 80%, Burton Albion 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Plymouth and 20% for Burton Albion.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 40%; Burton Albion in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Plymouth's recent matches and 20% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Plymouth's recent games and 20% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Burton Albion 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Burton Albion 2-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.32 xG and Burton Albion 0.64 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against Burton Albion attack 0.53 / defence 1.14, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 53% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 18%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 46%, Burton Albion 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.82 PPG, Burton Albion 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.