Peterborough 0-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Stevenage meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 3W 4D 3L at Weston Homes Stadium — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Peterborough, 2 for Stevenage and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 57% versus Stevenage 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 57% | Stevenage 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.62 xG and Stevenage 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.130 / defence 1.004 | Stevenage attack 0.894 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.280. Data: 49 Peterborough games / 49 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 26%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Stevenage 3.85. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 80% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 47% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Peterborough 1.62 / Stevenage 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.130 / def 1.004 | Stevenage attack 0.894 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Stevenage xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Stevenage kick off?
Peterborough vs Stevenage kicked off at 18:45 on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Peterborough 0 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Peterborough vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Stevenage part of?
Peterborough vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 47% chance of winning, Stevenage a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Peterborough and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stevenage?
Record (6 meetings): Peterborough 2W | Draws 2 | Stevenage 2W.
What form are Peterborough and Stevenage in?
Peterborough (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Stevenage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.89x) against Peterborough's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.76
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.77
1.15
Stevenage xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
5%
19.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.15 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 8D 25L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.45 PPG from 49 outings (19W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Peterborough against 1.45 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 9W 6D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.00 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 16W 8D 25L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 19W 14D 16L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Stevenage away?
Peterborough's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.38 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Stevenage in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Peterborough
3
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stevenage?
From 7 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Stevenage have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Peterborough 0-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 58%, Stevenage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Peterborough) and 42% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Peterborough's recent matches and 50% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Peterborough's recent games and 42% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Stevenage tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Peterborough's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Stevenage finished level at 0-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.62 xG and Stevenage 1.15 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Stevenage landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Stevenage attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 47% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 26%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 57%, Stevenage 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Stevenage's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.14 PPG, Stevenage 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.