Peterborough 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Peterborough at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Peterborough face Charlton.

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Fixture Analysis

Peterborough welcome Charlton to Weston Homes Stadium in League One (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 12 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Peterborough have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Peterborough's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Charlton stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Charlton have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Peterborough 1.90 PPG, Charlton 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Peterborough's 30% BTTS rate and Charlton's 30% (from Peterborough's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Peterborough, 0 for Charlton and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Feb 2023, ended Peterborough 0–0 Charlton — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Peterborough in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Charlton in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 40% versus Charlton 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 57% | Charlton 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.40 xG and Charlton 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.002 / defence 1.046 | Charlton attack 1.017 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.074. Data: built from Peterborough's last 47 games and Charlton's last 47. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Peterborough 43% | Draw 26% | Charlton 31%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.33 | Draw 3.78 | Charlton 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Peterborough 30% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Peterborough 47 games, Charlton 47) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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