Peterborough vs Cambridge United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambridge United at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambridge United make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Peterborough's overall League One record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough at Weston Homes Stadium this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambridge United have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's away record: 2W 7D 1L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cambridge United are 1.00 PPG clear of Peterborough in recent League One fixtures (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Peterborough have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cambridge United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Peterborough are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Peterborough winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Peterborough and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 57% versus Cambridge United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 55% | Cambridge United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.28 xG and Cambridge United 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 0.901 / defence 1.120 | Cambridge United attack 0.979 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. Data: 56 Peterborough games / 10 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 33% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 39%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Cambridge United 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Peterborough dominate the H2H record, yet Cambridge United are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Cambridge United are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 70% | Cambridge United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 33% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Peterborough 1.28 / Cambridge United 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 0.901 / def 1.120 | Cambridge United attack 0.979 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Cambridge United xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Cambridge United kick off?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
Where is Peterborough vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Cambridge United part of?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 33% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Peterborough and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
Record (6 meetings): Peterborough 5W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Cambridge United in?
Peterborough (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Cambridge United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (0.90) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.98x) against Peterborough's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 56/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.60
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.71
1.43
Cambridge United xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
8%
12.72
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.43 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough's recent record stands at 17W 11D 28L from 56 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 27W 20D 9L across 56 games — 1.80 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambridge United by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Peterborough heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 9W 8D 11L from 28 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 9W 13D 6L across 28 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.46 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Cambridge United in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 17W 11D 28L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 27W 20D 9L in their last 56 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Cambridge United away?
Cambridge United's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.25 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Peterborough have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 5-0 on 11 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Peterborough
0
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 5, Cambridge United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Cambridge United see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 57%, Cambridge United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Peterborough) and 32% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United in 36%; Peterborough have failed to score in 29% of games; Cambridge United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Peterborough's recent matches and 50% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Peterborough's recent games and 32% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.