Notts County 2-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Notts County vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to Meadow Lane to face Notts County in League One, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Notts County (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Notts County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Notts County's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Meadow Lane this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Notts County have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Burton Albion in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Notts County half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 52% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 54% | Burton Albion 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.06 xG and Burton Albion 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 0.834 / defence 1.117 | Burton Albion attack 0.983 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.301. Data: 2 Notts County games / 48 Burton Albion games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Notts County 26% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 44%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Burton Albion 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 60% | Burton Albion 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 26% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Notts County 1.06 / Burton Albion 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 0.834 / def 1.117 | Burton Albion attack 0.983 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Burton Albion xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Burton Albion kick off?
Notts County vs Burton Albion kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Notts County 2 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Notts County vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Burton Albion part of?
Notts County vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 26% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Notts County and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Burton Albion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Notts County and Burton Albion in?
Notts County (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Notts County's attack at 0.83x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.98x) against Notts County's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
The sample (2/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
26%
3.83
30%
3.30
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.49
1.43
Burton Albion xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
6%
15.98
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Notts County and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Notts County and 1.43 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Notts County's recent record stands at 26W 10D 12L from 48 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Notts County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 18L across 48 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Notts County by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 13W 6D 5L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 5W 10D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Notts County are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.10 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 48 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 26W 10D 12L in their last 48 games (1.83 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 14W 16D 18L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Burton Albion away?
Notts County's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.88 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Notts County or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Notts County
0
Draws
0
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Burton Albion?
From 1 meetings on record, Notts County have won 1, Burton Albion have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Notts County 2-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Burton Albion?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 54%, Burton Albion 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Notts County) and 50% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Burton Albion in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Notts County's games and 58% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Notts County vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Notts County's recent games and 50% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Notts County defy the odds to beat Burton Albion 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Burton Albion 2-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.06 xG and Burton Albion 1.43 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Notts County beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Burton Albion attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 26% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 44%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Notts County win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 54%, Burton Albion 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.