Northampton 1-2 Leyton Orient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Leyton Orient encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Northampton and Leyton Orient meet at Sixfields Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Northampton's overall League One record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Leyton Orient (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Leyton Orient have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Northampton are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Northampton winning.
The historical record gives Northampton a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Northampton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Leyton Orient goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 49% versus Leyton Orient 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 46% | Leyton Orient 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.51 xG and Leyton Orient 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.895 / defence 1.052 | Leyton Orient attack 0.869 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.128. Data: 78 Northampton games / 77 Leyton Orient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 48% | Draw 26% | Leyton Orient 26%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Leyton Orient 3.85. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Northampton if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 70% | Leyton Orient 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Leyton Orient | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 48% | Draw 26% | Leyton Orient 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Northampton 1.51 / Leyton Orient 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.895 / def 1.052 | Leyton Orient attack 0.869 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Northampton (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Leyton Orient xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Leyton Orient kick off?
Northampton vs Leyton Orient kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Leyton Orient?
Northampton 1 - 2 Leyton Orient.
Where is Northampton vs Leyton Orient being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Leyton Orient part of?
Northampton vs Leyton Orient is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Leyton Orient?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 48% chance of winning, Leyton Orient a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Leyton Orient?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Northampton and Leyton Orient will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Leyton Orient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Leyton Orient?
Record (9 meetings): Northampton 6W | Draws 2 | Leyton Orient 1W.
What form are Northampton and Leyton Orient in?
Northampton (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Leyton Orient (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.90x the league average against Leyton Orient's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Leyton Orient's attack (0.87x) against Northampton's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 78/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.87
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.54
1.03
Leyton Orient xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Leyton Orient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Northampton and Leyton Orient expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Northampton and 1.03 for Leyton Orient, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Leyton Orient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Northampton come into this having played 78 games, going 21W 22D 35L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Leyton Orient sit at 1.45 PPG from 78 outings (33W 14D 31L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Northampton against 1.45 for Leyton Orient. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Northampton's home form reads 13W 10D 15L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Leyton Orient have taken 1.29 points per game from 38 outings (15W 4D 19L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Northampton are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Leyton Orient are on 1.47 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Leyton Orient
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Leyton Orient in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 21W 22D 35L in their last 78 games (1.09 PPG), while Leyton Orient have gone 33W 14D 31L in their last 78 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Leyton Orient away?
Northampton's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.29 PPG; Leyton Orient away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Northampton or Leyton Orient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Leyton Orient in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Northampton have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Leyton Orient — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Northampton
2
Draws
2
Leyton Orient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Leyton Orient?
From 10 meetings on record, Northampton have won 6, Leyton Orient have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Leyton Orient last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Northampton 1-2 Leyton Orient.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Leyton Orient?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 47%, Leyton Orient 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Northampton) and 66% (Leyton Orient).
On the defensive side: Northampton have failed to score in 40% of games; Leyton Orient in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Leyton Orient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Leyton Orient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Northampton's recent matches and 53% of Leyton Orient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Leyton Orient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Northampton's recent games and 66% of Leyton Orient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Leyton Orient tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Leyton Orient in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Leyton Orient defy the odds to beat Northampton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leyton Orient beat Northampton 1-2 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.51 xG and Leyton Orient 1.03 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Leyton Orient outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Leyton Orient attack 0.87 / defence 1.19, drawn from 78/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 48% | Draw 26% | Leyton Orient 26%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Leyton Orient win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 46%, Leyton Orient 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Leyton Orient's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.09 PPG, Leyton Orient 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leyton Orient win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.