Northampton 1-0 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Northampton face Cheltenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Northampton welcome Cheltenham to Sixfields Stadium in League One (matchday 26). Kick-off is Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Northampton have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Northampton's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Cheltenham — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cheltenham's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Northampton) versus 1.50 (Cheltenham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Northampton have won 1, Cheltenham 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Northampton 1–0 Cheltenham — a Northampton win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Northampton in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 52% versus Cheltenham 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 51% | Cheltenham 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.42 xG and Cheltenham 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.065 / defence 1.072 | Cheltenham attack 0.843 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.122. Data: built from Northampton's last 24 games and Cheltenham's last 69.
Result probabilities: Northampton 46% | Draw 28% | Cheltenham 26%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.19 | Draw 3.54 | Cheltenham 3.83. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Northampton are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Northampton 50% (last 10 home games) | Cheltenham 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, matchday 26 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 46% | Draw 28% | Cheltenham 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Northampton 1.42 / Cheltenham 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.065 / def 1.072 | Cheltenham attack 0.843 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Northampton (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Cheltenham xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Cheltenham FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Cheltenham kick off?
Northampton vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 1 January 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Cheltenham?
Northampton 1 - 0 Cheltenham.
Where is Northampton vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Cheltenham part of?
Northampton vs Cheltenham is a League One fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 46% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Northampton and Cheltenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Northampton vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Northampton's attack rating (1.06) and Cheltenham's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 24 games and Cheltenham's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.54
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.44
1.01
Cheltenham xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
6%
15.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Cheltenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Northampton and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Northampton and 1.01 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Northampton have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 32W 17D 20L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Cheltenham's form line: 19W 17D 33L from 69 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Northampton are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cheltenham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Northampton have posted 1.74 PPG from their last 34 home games (17W 8D 9L).
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 8W 6D 20L from their last 34 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 0.90 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Cheltenham
Blended
Northampton (Home) vs Cheltenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Blended
Cheltenham
Blended
❓ Northampton vs Cheltenham Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 32W 17D 20L in their last 69 games (1.64 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 19W 17D 33L in their last 69 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Cheltenham away?
Northampton's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.74 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Northampton or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Northampton
0
Draws
0
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Cheltenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Cheltenham?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 2, Cheltenham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Cheltenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 January 2024: Northampton 1-0 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Cheltenham?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 53%, Cheltenham 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Northampton) and 44% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cheltenham in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Cheltenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Cheltenham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Northampton's recent matches and 32% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Northampton and Cheltenham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Northampton's recent games and 44% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Cheltenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Northampton's recent matches and 65% of Cheltenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Cheltenham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Cheltenham 1-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.42 xG and Cheltenham 1.01 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cheltenham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Cheltenham attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 24/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 46% | Draw 28% | Cheltenham 26%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 51%, Cheltenham 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cheltenham's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Northampton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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