Lincoln 1-3 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
LNER Stadium plays host to Lincoln versus Wigan in League One, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off: Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Lincoln (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lincoln at LNER Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Wigan's overall League One record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Wigan's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in League One this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Wigan are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lincoln, 0 for Wigan and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Lincoln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 56% versus Wigan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 46% | Wigan 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 0.75 xG and Wigan 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.737 / defence 1.191 | Wigan attack 1.106 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.174. Lincoln's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Lincoln games / 39 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 17% | Draw 27% | Wigan 56%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Wigan 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Wigan (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Lincoln 50% | Wigan 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 17% | Draw 27% | Wigan 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Lincoln 0.75 / Wigan 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.737 / def 1.191 | Wigan attack 1.106 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Wigan (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Wigan xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Wigan kick off?
Lincoln vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Wigan?
Lincoln 1 - 3 Wigan.
Where is Lincoln vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Wigan part of?
Lincoln vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 17% chance of winning, Wigan a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lincoln and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Wigan?
Record (1 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 0 | Wigan 0W.
What form are Lincoln and Wigan in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Wigan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 0.74x the league average against Wigan's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (1.11x) against Lincoln's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 41/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-2 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
17%
5.83
27%
3.66
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.29
1.55
Wigan xG
5.83
17%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
4%
27.41
26%
3.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 15.6 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.55 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Wigan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Lincoln have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 11W 9D 19L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 25W 8D 6L from 39 games, 2.13 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Wigan are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lincoln.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lincoln have posted 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 12W 4D 2L from 18 away games — 2.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wigan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lincoln are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.79 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Wigan in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Wigan in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 11W 9D 19L in their last 39 games (1.08 PPG), while Wigan have gone 25W 8D 6L in their last 39 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Wigan away?
Wigan's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 0.94 PPG; Wigan away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Wigan in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wigan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lincoln
4
Draws
2
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Wigan?
From 8 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 2, Wigan have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Wigan 0-1 Lincoln.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 50%, Wigan 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Lincoln) and 56% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Wigan in 33%; Lincoln have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lincoln's games and 61% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lincoln vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Lincoln's recent games and 56% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Wigan tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Wigan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wigan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lincoln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan beat Lincoln 1-3 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 0.75 xG and Wigan 1.55 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wigan outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.74 / defence 1.19 against Wigan attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 17% | Draw 27% | Wigan 56%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 46%, Wigan 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wigan arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Lincoln (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wigan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.