Lincoln 0-3 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Peterborough travel to LNER Stadium to take on Lincoln. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lincoln stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at LNER Stadium, Lincoln have gone 3W 7D 0L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at LNER Stadium.
Across all League One games this season, Peterborough have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lincoln 1.50 PPG, Peterborough 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lincoln have won 0, Peterborough 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 54% versus Peterborough 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 41% | Peterborough 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 0.92 xG and Peterborough 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.721 / defence 0.690 | Peterborough attack 1.248 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.101. Lincoln's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Peterborough have an above-average attack strength of 1.248 — the away xG of 0.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Lincoln's defence rating of 0.690 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 81 Lincoln games / 36 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 32% | Draw 34% | Peterborough 34%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Peterborough 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 50% | Peterborough 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 32% | Draw 34% | Peterborough 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Lincoln 0.92 / Peterborough 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.721 / def 0.690 | Peterborough attack 1.248 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Peterborough xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Peterborough kick off?
Lincoln vs Peterborough kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Peterborough?
Lincoln 0 - 3 Peterborough.
Where is Lincoln vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Peterborough part of?
Lincoln vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 32% chance of winning, Peterborough a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Lincoln and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Peterborough?
Record (1 meetings): Lincoln 0W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 1W.
What form are Lincoln and Peterborough in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.72) and Peterborough's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 81/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
32%
3.08
34%
2.97
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Lincoln xG
Total xG
1.87
0.95
Peterborough xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 14.7 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.95 for Peterborough, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lincoln's recent record stands at 23W 28D 30L from 81 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 41L across 81 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lincoln on 1.20 PPG, Peterborough on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 11W 18D 11L from 40 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 10W 4D 26L across 40 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lincoln are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.27 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 81 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 23W 28D 30L in their last 81 games (1.20 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 27W 13D 41L in their last 81 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Peterborough away?
Lincoln's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.27 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lincoln have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2022, when Peterborough won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lincoln's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lincoln
2
Draws
3
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Peterborough?
From 8 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 3, Peterborough have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Lincoln 5-2 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 55%, Peterborough 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Lincoln) and 60% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Lincoln have failed to score in 32% of games; Peterborough in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Lincoln's recent matches and 48% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Lincoln's recent games and 60% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Peterborough tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lincoln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Lincoln 0-3 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 0.92 xG and Peterborough 0.95 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lincoln fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Peterborough outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.72 / defence 0.69 against Peterborough attack 1.25 / defence 0.99, drawn from 81/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 32% | Draw 34% | Peterborough 34%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 41%, Peterborough 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Peterborough's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.20 PPG, Peterborough 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.02 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.