Lincoln 0-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lincoln face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lincoln and Charlton meet at LNER Stadium in League One (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lincoln have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Lincoln have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Charlton's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Charlton have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Lincoln, 0.90 for Charlton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Lincoln edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Feb 2024, ended Lincoln 1–1 Charlton — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lincoln — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Charlton — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 49% versus Charlton 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 43% | Charlton 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lincoln surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Charlton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Charlton surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Lincoln recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.60 xG and Charlton 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.172 / defence 1.157 | Charlton attack 0.893 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.097. Data: built from Lincoln's last 64 games and Charlton's last 63.
Result probabilities: Lincoln 48% | Draw 25% | Charlton 27%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.08 | Draw 4.03 | Charlton 3.71. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lincoln 80% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 19 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 48% | Draw 25% | Charlton 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Lincoln 1.60 / Charlton 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.172 / def 1.157 | Charlton attack 0.893 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Charlton xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lincoln vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Lincoln vs Charlton kick off?
Lincoln vs Charlton kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Charlton?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Lincoln vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Charlton part of?
Lincoln vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 48% chance of winning, Charlton a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lincoln and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lincoln vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.17x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.89x) against Lincoln's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Lincoln's last 64 games and Charlton's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.03
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.73
1.13
Charlton xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
5%
18.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lincoln vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.13 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lincoln's recent record stands at 27W 19D 17L from 63 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Charlton, meanwhile, have gone 17W 24D 22L across 63 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lincoln by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 14W 8D 9L from their last 31 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charlton's away record stands at 6W 13D 12L across their last 31 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lincoln are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.30 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 67%.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Charlton
Blended
Lincoln (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lincoln
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Lincoln vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Lincoln and Charlton in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 27W 19D 17L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Charlton have gone 17W 24D 22L in their last 63 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Charlton away?
Lincoln's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.61 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Charlton in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lincoln
4
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Lincoln vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Charlton?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lincoln have won 3, Charlton have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Charlton 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Charlton?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 48%, Charlton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lincoln) and 39% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 26% of games; Charlton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lincoln vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lincoln and Charlton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Lincoln's games and 64% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lincoln and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Lincoln's recent games and 39% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Lincoln's recent matches and 61% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln and Charlton finished level at 0-0 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.60 xG and Charlton 1.13 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Charlton landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against Charlton attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 48% | Draw 25% | Charlton 27%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 43%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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