Fleetwood Town 1-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fleetwood Town vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Charlton travel to Highbury Stadium to take on Fleetwood Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Fleetwood Town have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 outings — a 1.11 PPG return. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.78 conceded. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fleetwood Town's home record at Highbury Stadium: 1W 1D 1L from 3 League One appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charlton — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fleetwood Town are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.51 PPG ahead (1.11 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fleetwood Town register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Charlton in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Fleetwood Town trading profile (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 56%.
Charlton trading profile (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fleetwood Town 78% and Charlton 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fleetwood Town 67% | Charlton 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 1.48 xG and Charlton 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 1.039 / defence 1.335 | Charlton attack 0.807 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.231. Charlton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Fleetwood Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Fleetwood Town games / 10 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 41% | Draw 25% | Charlton 34%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Charlton 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fleetwood Town as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Fleetwood Town 67% | Charlton 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fleetwood Town vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Highbury Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 41% | Draw 25% | Charlton 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Fleetwood Town 1.48 / Charlton 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Fleetwood Town attack 1.039 / def 1.335 | Charlton attack 0.807 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Fleetwood Town xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Charlton xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fleetwood Town vs Charlton kick off?
Fleetwood Town vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Highbury Stadium.
What was the final score in Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Fleetwood Town 1 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Fleetwood Town vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Highbury Stadium.
What competition is Fleetwood Town vs Charlton part of?
Fleetwood Town vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Fleetwood Town a 41% chance of winning, Charlton a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fleetwood Town and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Fleetwood Town vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fleetwood Town and Charlton in?
Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Charlton (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fleetwood Town's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Fleetwood Town's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
41%
2.45
25%
3.97
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Fleetwood Town xG
Total xG
2.80
1.33
Charlton xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Fleetwood Town and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.33 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fleetwood Town come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 4D 3L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. The sample for Fleetwood Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 0.56 PPG from 9 outings (1W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fleetwood Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Charlton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fleetwood Town's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fleetwood Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.11 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Charlton in 78%.
Last 9 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fleetwood Town
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fleetwood Town and Charlton in coming into this match?
Fleetwood Town have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Charlton have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fleetwood Town at home or Charlton away?
Fleetwood Town's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fleetwood Town at home: 1.33 PPG; Charlton away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fleetwood Town's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fleetwood Town
2
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Fleetwood Town have won 1, Charlton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fleetwood Town and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Fleetwood Town 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Fleetwood Town and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fleetwood Town at 67%, Charlton at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fleetwood Town and 67% for Charlton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fleetwood Town have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fleetwood Town home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fleetwood Town play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fleetwood Town's games and 100% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fleetwood Town vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fleetwood Town's matches and 67% of Charlton's.
Do Fleetwood Town and Charlton tend to score early?
Fleetwood Town have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Charlton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Fleetwood Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Fleetwood Town 1-2 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.48 xG and Charlton 1.33 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 1.04 / defence 1.33 against Charlton attack 0.81 / defence 1.28, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 41% | Draw 25% | Charlton 34%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 67%, Charlton 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fleetwood Town arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Charlton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.