Fleetwood Town 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fleetwood Town face Charlton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charlton travel to Highbury Stadium to take on Fleetwood Town in League One (matchday 39). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fleetwood Town have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fleetwood Town's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Charlton — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fleetwood Town 1.40 PPG, Charlton 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Fleetwood Town have won 1, Charlton 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Fleetwood Town 1–2 Charlton — a Charlton win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fleetwood Town trading profile (last 84 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Charlton trading profile (last 84 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fleetwood Town 55% and Charlton 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fleetwood Town 48% | Charlton 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fleetwood Town surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Charlton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 1.33 xG and Charlton 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 0.893 / defence 1.099 | Charlton attack 1.087 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.226. Data: built from Fleetwood Town's last 84 games and Charlton's last 84.
Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 34% | Draw 26% | Charlton 40%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 2.93 | Draw 3.92 | Charlton 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fleetwood Town's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fleetwood Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fleetwood Town vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 39 | Venue: Highbury Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 34% | Draw 26% | Charlton 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Fleetwood Town 1.33 / Charlton 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Fleetwood Town attack 0.893 / def 1.099 | Charlton attack 1.087 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Charlton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Fleetwood Town xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Charlton xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fleetwood Town vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Fleetwood Town vs Charlton kick off?
Fleetwood Town vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Highbury Stadium.
What was the final score in Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Fleetwood Town 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Fleetwood Town vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Highbury Stadium.
What competition is Fleetwood Town vs Charlton part of?
Fleetwood Town vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Fleetwood Town a 34% chance of winning, Charlton a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fleetwood Town and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fleetwood Town vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fleetwood Town's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Fleetwood Town's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fleetwood Town's last 84 games and Charlton's last 84 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.92
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Fleetwood Town xG
Total xG
2.79
1.46
Charlton xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
8%
12.65
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fleetwood Town vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fleetwood Town and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.46 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Fleetwood Town vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fleetwood Town come into this having played 84 games, going 21W 28D 35L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.26 PPG from 84 outings (26W 28D 30L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fleetwood Town on 1.08 PPG, Charlton on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fleetwood Town's home form reads 11W 12D 19L across their last 42 home games, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 42 away games (10W 16D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.50 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 67%.
Last 84 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
Fleetwood Town (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Fleetwood Town vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Fleetwood Town and Charlton in coming into this match?
Fleetwood Town have gone 21W 28D 35L in their last 84 games (1.08 PPG), while Charlton have gone 26W 28D 30L in their last 84 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fleetwood Town at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fleetwood Town at home: 1.07 PPG; Charlton away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fleetwood Town's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fleetwood Town
2
Draws
3
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Fleetwood Town vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Charlton?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Fleetwood Town have won 1, Charlton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fleetwood Town and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Fleetwood Town 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Fleetwood Town and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fleetwood Town 48%, Charlton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Fleetwood Town) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Fleetwood Town have failed to score in 33% of games; Charlton in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fleetwood Town home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fleetwood Town vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fleetwood Town and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Fleetwood Town's recent matches and 62% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fleetwood Town and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Fleetwood Town's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fleetwood Town and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Fleetwood Town's recent matches and 67% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fleetwood Town and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fleetwood Town and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 1.33 xG and Charlton 1.46 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Charlton attack 1.09 / defence 1.11, drawn from 84/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 34% | Draw 26% | Charlton 40%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 48%, Charlton 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fleetwood Town 1.08 PPG, Charlton 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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