Exeter City 1-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wigan at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Exeter City face Wigan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wigan travel to St James Park to take on Exeter City in League One (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 8 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Exeter City stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Exeter City's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wigan — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Wigan's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Exeter City) versus 1.10 (Wigan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Exeter City, 1 for Wigan and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Exeter City 0–0 Wigan — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Exeter City in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 36 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Wigan in-play tendencies (last 85 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 44% versus Wigan 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 44% | Wigan 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 0.88 xG and Wigan 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.931 / defence 1.332 | Wigan attack 0.768 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.127. Wigan bring a tight defence (rating 0.732, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Exeter City's projected output down. Wigan's attack rating of 0.768 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Exeter City's defence rating of 1.332 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wigan's projected output up. Data: built from Exeter City's last 86 games and Wigan's last 85.
Result probabilities: Exeter City 28% | Draw 30% | Wigan 42%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 3.61 | Draw 3.31 | Wigan 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wigan are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Exeter City 60% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 31 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 28% | Draw 30% | Wigan 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Exeter City 0.88 / Wigan 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.931 / def 1.332 | Wigan attack 0.768 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Wigan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Wigan xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Exeter City vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Exeter City vs Wigan kick off?
Exeter City vs Wigan kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 8 April 2025 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Wigan?
Exeter City 1 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Exeter City vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Wigan part of?
Exeter City vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 28% chance of winning, Wigan a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Exeter City and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Exeter City vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Exeter City's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Exeter City's last 86 games and Wigan's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
28%
3.61
30%
3.31
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.03
1.15
Wigan xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.43
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Exeter City vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.15 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Exeter City come into this having played 85 games, going 29W 19D 37L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Wigan sit at 1.35 PPG from 85 outings (31W 22D 32L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Exeter City on 1.25 PPG, Wigan on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Exeter City's home form reads 14W 11D 17L across their last 42 home games, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Wigan have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 42 away games (12W 13D 17L).
The Goals Picture
Exeter City are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.14 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Wigan in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
Exeter City (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Exeter City
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Exeter City vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Exeter City and Wigan in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 29W 19D 37L in their last 85 games (1.25 PPG), while Wigan have gone 31W 22D 32L in their last 85 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Wigan away?
Exeter City's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.26 PPG; Wigan away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Wigan in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Exeter City's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Exeter City
3
Draws
2
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Exeter City vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Wigan?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Exeter City have won 1, Wigan have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Wigan 2-0 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 45%, Wigan 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Exeter City) and 45% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 31% of games; Wigan in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Exeter City vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Exeter City and Wigan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Exeter City's recent matches and 55% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Exeter City and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Exeter City's recent games and 45% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Exeter City's recent matches and 79% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Exeter City and Wigan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City and Wigan finished level at 1-1 at St James Park, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 0.88 xG and Wigan 1.15 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.93 / defence 1.33 against Wigan attack 0.77 / defence 0.73, drawn from 86/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 28% | Draw 30% | Wigan 42%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 44%, Wigan 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Wigan's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.25 PPG, Wigan 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 31
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →