Exeter City 0-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Exeter City at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Exeter City face Cambridge United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Exeter City and Cambridge United meet at St James Park in League One (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Exeter City (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Exeter City have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cambridge United have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Cambridge United away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Exeter City against 1.10 for Cambridge United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Cambridge United edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Dec 2023, ended Exeter City 0–2 Cambridge United — a Cambridge United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Exeter City — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Cambridge United — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 42% versus Cambridge United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 45% | Cambridge United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.05 xG and Cambridge United 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.660 / defence 0.835 | Cambridge United attack 0.802 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.163. Exeter City's attack rating of 0.660 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Exeter City's last 72 games and Cambridge United's last 71.
Result probabilities: Exeter City 40% | Draw 34% | Cambridge United 26%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.48 | Draw 2.96 | Cambridge United 3.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Exeter City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Exeter City's last 10 home games and Cambridge United's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Exeter City 20% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, matchday 29 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 40% | Draw 34% | Cambridge United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Exeter City 1.05 / Cambridge United 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.660 / def 0.835 | Cambridge United attack 0.802 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Cambridge United xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Exeter City vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Exeter City vs Cambridge United kick off?
Exeter City vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Cambridge United?
Exeter City 0 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Exeter City vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Cambridge United part of?
Exeter City vs Cambridge United is a League One fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 40% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Exeter City and Cambridge United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Exeter City vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (0.66) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.80x) against Exeter City's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from Exeter City's last 72 games and Cambridge United's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
40%
2.48
34%
2.96
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Exeter City xG
Total xG
1.82
0.78
Cambridge United xG
2.48
40%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Exeter City vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.78 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Exeter City come into this having played 71 games, going 22W 15D 34L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 1.07 PPG from 71 outings (21W 13D 37L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Exeter City against 1.07 for Cambridge United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Exeter City's home form reads 12W 9D 13L across their last 34 home games, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambridge United have taken 0.62 points per game from their last 34 away games (5W 6D 23L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cambridge United's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Exeter City are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.90 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
Exeter City (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Exeter City
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Exeter City vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Exeter City and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 22W 15D 34L in their last 71 games (1.14 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 21W 13D 37L in their last 71 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Cambridge United away?
Exeter City's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.32 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Exeter City have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Exeter City have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Exeter City
1
Draws
2
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Exeter City vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Cambridge United?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Exeter City have won 3, Cambridge United have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2025: Cambridge United 0-1 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Cambridge United?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 44%, Cambridge United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Exeter City) and 50% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Exeter City have failed to score in 41% of games; Cambridge United in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Exeter City vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Exeter City and Cambridge United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Exeter City's recent matches and 47% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Exeter City and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Exeter City's recent games and 50% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 44% of Exeter City's recent matches and 65% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Exeter City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St James Park, Regular Season - 29, as Exeter City and Cambridge United drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.05 xG and Cambridge United 0.78 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Exeter City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.66 / defence 0.83 against Cambridge United attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 40% | Draw 34% | Cambridge United 26%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 45%, Cambridge United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambridge United's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.14 PPG, Cambridge United 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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