Doncaster 0-3 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Doncaster at 38%, yet in-form Sunderland provide a compelling counter-argument — this Doncaster vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sunderland make the trip to Eco-Power Stadium to face Doncaster in League One, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 27 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Doncaster have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Doncaster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Doncaster are significantly better at Eco-Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sunderland are 0.60 PPG clear of Doncaster in recent League One fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Doncaster goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Doncaster 38% versus Sunderland 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Doncaster 43% | Sunderland 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Doncaster 1.23 xG and Sunderland 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Doncaster attack 0.775 / defence 0.972 | Sunderland attack 0.898 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.291. Doncaster's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sunderland bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing Doncaster's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Doncaster games / 22 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Doncaster 38% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 33%. Fair-value odds: Doncaster 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Sunderland 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Doncaster as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sunderland (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Doncaster if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Doncaster 50% | Sunderland 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Doncaster vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Eco-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Doncaster 38% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Doncaster 1.23 / Sunderland 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Doncaster attack 0.775 / def 0.972 | Sunderland attack 0.898 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Doncaster (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Doncaster xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Sunderland xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Doncaster vs Sunderland kick off?
Doncaster vs Sunderland kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 27 December 2021 at Eco-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Doncaster vs Sunderland?
Doncaster 0 - 3 Sunderland.
Where is Doncaster vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Eco-Power Stadium.
What competition is Doncaster vs Sunderland part of?
Doncaster vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Doncaster vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Doncaster a 38% chance of winning, Sunderland a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Doncaster the favourite.
Will both teams score in Doncaster vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Doncaster and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Doncaster vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Doncaster and Sunderland?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Doncaster and Sunderland in?
Doncaster (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Sunderland (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Doncaster's attack at 0.78x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.90x) against Doncaster's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Doncaster Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.52
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Doncaster xG
Total xG
2.36
1.13
Sunderland xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Doncaster vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Doncaster and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Doncaster and 1.13 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Doncaster vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Doncaster's recent record stands at 4W 4D 13L from 21 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Doncaster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 5L across 21 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sunderland by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Doncaster heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Doncaster have managed 4W 3D 3L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.76 PPG overall — Doncaster are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sunderland's away record stands at 3W 3D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sunderland's season.
Attack vs Defence
Doncaster are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.76 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 21 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Doncaster
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Doncaster and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Doncaster have gone 4W 4D 13L in their last 21 games (0.76 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 12W 4D 5L in their last 21 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Doncaster at home or Sunderland away?
Doncaster's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Doncaster at home: 1.50 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Doncaster
0
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Doncaster and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Doncaster have won 1, Sunderland have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Doncaster and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Sunderland 1-2 Doncaster.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Doncaster see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Doncaster 50%, Sunderland 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Doncaster) and 70% (Sunderland). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Doncaster keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Doncaster have failed to score in 30% of games; Sunderland in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Doncaster home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Doncaster play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Doncaster's games and 60% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Doncaster vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Doncaster's matches and 70% of Sunderland's.
Do Doncaster and Sunderland tend to score early?
Doncaster have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sunderland run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Doncaster.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Doncaster 0-3 at Eco-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Doncaster 1.23 xG and Sunderland 1.13 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Doncaster fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sunderland outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Doncaster attack 0.78 / defence 0.97 against Sunderland attack 0.90 / defence 1.38, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Doncaster 38% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 33%, with Doncaster to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sunderland win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Doncaster 43%, Sunderland 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Doncaster's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win. Doncaster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.