Derby 1-1 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Derby face Portsmouth.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Derby and Portsmouth meet at Pride Park Stadium in League One (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Derby's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Derby's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Portsmouth have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Portsmouth have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Derby against 1.80 for Portsmouth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Derby, 0 for Portsmouth and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Derby 1–1 Portsmouth — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Derby half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Portsmouth 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 48% | Portsmouth 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Derby surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Portsmouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.93 xG and Portsmouth 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.995 / defence 0.996 | Portsmouth attack 1.077 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.128. Portsmouth bring a tight defence (rating 0.792, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Derby's projected output down. Data: built from Derby's last 52 games and Portsmouth's last 52.

Result probabilities: Derby 28% | Draw 29% | Portsmouth 42%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.53 | Draw 3.42 | Portsmouth 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portsmouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Derby 50% (last 10 home games) | Portsmouth 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights