Derby 1-2 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Port Vale meet at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 6W 1D 3L at Pride Park Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale's overall League One record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Derby's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Port Vale — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Port Vale 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 39% | Port Vale 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.91 xG and Port Vale 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.077 / defence 1.081 | Port Vale attack 0.739 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.216. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Derby games / 11 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 59% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 19%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Port Vale 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Derby (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Derby 70% | Port Vale 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 59% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Derby 1.91 / Port Vale 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.077 / def 1.081 | Port Vale attack 0.739 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Derby (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Port Vale xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Port Vale kick off?
Derby vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Port Vale?
Derby 1 - 2 Port Vale.
Where is Derby vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Port Vale part of?
Derby vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 59% chance of winning, Port Vale a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Derby and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Port Vale?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Port Vale in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Port Vale (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.08x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.74x) against Derby's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 10/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
59%
1.68
22%
4.57
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Derby xG
Total xG
2.88
0.97
Port Vale xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
3%
36.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Derby and 0.97 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby's recent record stands at 19W 15D 22L from 56 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 17L across 56 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Derby against 1.66 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Derby have managed 15W 7D 6L from 28 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port Vale's away record stands at 13W 6D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.45 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 56 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 19W 15D 22L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 27W 12D 17L in their last 56 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Port Vale away?
Derby's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.86 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Derby or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Port Vale in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Derby have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
1
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Port Vale?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Port Vale have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Derby 3-0 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Port Vale?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 61%, Port Vale 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derby) and 50% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Derby's games and 57% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derby's recent games and 50% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Port Vale tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.91 xG and Port Vale 0.97 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derby fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Port Vale outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.08 / defence 1.08 against Port Vale attack 0.74 / defence 1.33, drawn from 10/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 59% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 19%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 39%, Port Vale 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.29 PPG, Port Vale 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.