Derby 0-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 42%, yet in-form Ipswich provide a compelling counter-argument — this Derby vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park Stadium plays host to Derby versus Ipswich in League One, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Pride Park Stadium this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ipswich have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Ipswich away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ipswich are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Derby 0W, Ipswich 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Ipswich winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (83 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ipswich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (83 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Ipswich 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 45% | Ipswich 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.39 xG and Ipswich 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.236 / defence 0.941 | Ipswich attack 1.121 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.111. Data: 38 Derby games / 83 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 42% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 32%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Ipswich 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ipswich (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Derby 30% | Ipswich 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Ipswich | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 42% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Derby 1.39 / Ipswich 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.236 / def 0.941 | Ipswich attack 1.121 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Derby (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ipswich xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Ipswich kick off?
Derby vs Ipswich kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Ipswich?
Derby 0 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Derby vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Ipswich part of?
Derby vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 42% chance of winning, Ipswich a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Derby and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Ipswich?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are Derby and Ipswich in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Ipswich (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.24x the league average against Ipswich's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.12x) against Derby's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 38/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.75
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Derby xG
Total xG
2.56
1.17
Ipswich xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Derby and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Derby and 1.17 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 83 outings, Derby have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 32W 22D 29L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Ipswich's form line: 39W 28D 16L from 83 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Derby against 1.75 for Ipswich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.93 PPG from 41 outings (23W 10D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ipswich have gone 16W 13D 12L from 41 away games — 1.49 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.67 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 32W 22D 29L in their last 83 games (1.42 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 39W 28D 16L in their last 83 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Ipswich away?
Derby's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.93 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Derby or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ipswich in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Derby
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Derby 1-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 51%, Ipswich 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Derby) and 42% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Ipswich in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Derby's recent matches and 51% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Derby's recent games and 42% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Ipswich tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Derby 0-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.39 xG and Ipswich 1.17 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Derby fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ipswich outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.24 / defence 0.94 against Ipswich attack 1.12 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 42% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 32%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ipswich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 45%, Ipswich 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.42 PPG, Ipswich 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.