Derby 1-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Burton Albion at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 44. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Pride Park Stadium, Derby have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.20 PPG, Burton Albion 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Burton Albion 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Burton Albion 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 42% | Burton Albion 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.91 xG and Burton Albion 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.063 / defence 1.001 | Burton Albion attack 1.080 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.115. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Derby games / 87 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 53% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 23%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Burton Albion 4.35. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Derby 40% | Burton Albion 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 53% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Derby 1.91 / Burton Albion 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.063 / def 1.001 | Burton Albion attack 1.080 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Derby (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Burton Albion xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Burton Albion kick off?
Derby vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Burton Albion?
Derby 1 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Derby vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Burton Albion part of?
Derby vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 53% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Derby and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Burton Albion?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are Derby and Burton Albion in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.20
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Derby xG
Total xG
3.12
1.21
Burton Albion xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
3%
29.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Derby and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Derby and 1.21 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 34W 24D 29L from 87 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 27W 21D 39L across 87 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.45 PPG, Burton Albion on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 23W 11D 9L from 43 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 9W 9D 25L across 43 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.22 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 87 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 34W 24D 29L in their last 87 games (1.45 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 27W 21D 39L in their last 87 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Burton Albion away?
Derby's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.86 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Derby or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2023, when Derby won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
0
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Burton Albion?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Burton Albion have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2024, when Derby 3-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Burton Albion?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 51%, Burton Albion 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Derby) and 58% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Burton Albion in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Derby's recent matches and 56% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Derby's recent games and 58% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Burton Albion 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Burton Albion 1-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.91 xG and Burton Albion 1.21 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Burton Albion landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Burton Albion attack 1.08 / defence 1.35, drawn from 43/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 53% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 23%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 42%, Burton Albion 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burton Albion's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.45 PPG, Burton Albion 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.98 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.