Crewe 0-2 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rotherham at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crewe and Rotherham meet at Mornflake Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crewe's overall League One record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe's home record at Mornflake Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Rotherham have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rotherham's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Rotherham arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Crewe lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Crewe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rotherham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 8% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 50% versus Rotherham 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Crewe 42% | Rotherham 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 0.67 xG and Rotherham 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.814 / defence 1.210 | Rotherham attack 0.712 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.232. Rotherham's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Crewe games / 26 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 23% | Draw 33% | Rotherham 45%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Rotherham 2.22. Rotherham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Crewe's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rotherham as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rotherham if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 50% | Rotherham 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 23% | Draw 33% | Rotherham 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Crewe 0.67 / Rotherham 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.814 / def 1.210 | Rotherham attack 0.712 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Rotherham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Rotherham xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Rotherham kick off?
Crewe vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Rotherham?
Crewe 0 - 2 Rotherham.
Where is Crewe vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Rotherham part of?
Crewe vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 23% chance of winning, Rotherham a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rotherham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Crewe and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Rotherham?
Record (1 meetings): Crewe 0W | Draws 1 | Rotherham 0W.
What form are Crewe and Rotherham in?
Crewe (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Rotherham (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Crewe's attack rating (0.81) and Rotherham's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rotherham's attack (0.71x) against Crewe's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rotherham Win
23%
4.41
33%
3.05
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Crewe xG
Total xG
1.73
1.06
Rotherham xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
51%
1.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.75
23%
4.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 18.9 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Crewe and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Crewe and 1.06 for Rotherham, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crewe's recent record stands at 5W 6D 15L from 26 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rotherham, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 5L across 26 games — 2.04 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rotherham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rotherham by 1.23 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Crewe heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Crewe have managed 4W 3D 5L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.81 PPG overall — Crewe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rotherham's away record stands at 6W 3D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rotherham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Crewe are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.77 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 5W 6D 15L in their last 26 games (0.81 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 16W 5D 5L in their last 26 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Rotherham away?
Rotherham's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.25 PPG; Rotherham away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Crewe or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Rotherham in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crewe
1
Draws
1
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Rotherham?
From 2 meetings on record, Crewe have won 0, Rotherham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2022, when Crewe 0-2 Rotherham.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Rotherham?
Rotherham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rotherham see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 42% (Crewe) and 17% (Rotherham) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Crewe and 8% for Rotherham.
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rotherham in 58%; Crewe have failed to score in 33% of games; Rotherham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Crewe's recent matches and 17% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Crewe's recent games and 8% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Rotherham tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rotherham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rotherham beat Crewe 0-2 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 0.67 xG and Rotherham 1.06 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rotherham outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.81 / defence 1.21 against Rotherham attack 0.71 / defence 0.74, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 23% | Draw 33% | Rotherham 45%, with Rotherham to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 42%, Rotherham 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rotherham's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rotherham arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Crewe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Rotherham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.