Crawley Town 1-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 41%, yet in-form Rotherham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crawley Town vs Rotherham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Rotherham at Broadfield Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rotherham stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rotherham away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rotherham — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Rotherham in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 54% versus Rotherham 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Rotherham 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.42 xG and Rotherham 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.978 / defence 1.485 | Rotherham attack 0.749 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.120. Data: 16 Crawley Town games / 15 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Rotherham 33%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Rotherham 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rotherham (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Crawley Town 40% | Rotherham 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Rotherham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Rotherham 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Crawley Town 1.42 / Rotherham 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.978 / def 1.485 | Rotherham attack 0.749 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Rotherham xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Rotherham kick off?
Crawley Town vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Rotherham?
Crawley Town 1 - 0 Rotherham.
Where is Crawley Town vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Rotherham part of?
Crawley Town vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 41% chance of winning, Rotherham a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Crawley Town and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Rotherham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Rotherham in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Rotherham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Crawley Town vs Rotherham?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.98) and Rotherham's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.72
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.66
1.25
Rotherham xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.25 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 25W 10D 26L from 61 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rotherham, meanwhile, have gone 9W 17D 35L across 61 games — 0.72 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rotherham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Crawley Town by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rotherham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 13W 5D 12L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rotherham's away record stands at 1W 7D 22L across 30 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 0.84 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 61 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 25W 10D 26L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 9W 17D 35L in their last 61 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Rotherham away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.47 PPG; Rotherham away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
0
Draws
0
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Rotherham?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Rotherham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Rotherham 0-4 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Rotherham?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rotherham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Rotherham 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Crawley Town) and 47% (Rotherham).
On the defensive side: Rotherham in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 37% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Crawley Town's recent games and 47% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Rotherham tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crawley Town edge out Rotherham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Rotherham 1-0 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.42 xG and Rotherham 1.25 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rotherham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.49 against Rotherham attack 0.75 / defence 1.06, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Rotherham 33%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Rotherham 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Rotherham's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Rotherham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.