Crawley Town 0-2 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Broadfield Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Mansfield Town in League One (matchday 9). Kick-off: Tuesday 1 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Crawley Town's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Mansfield Town (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Mansfield Town's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Mansfield Town arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Crawley Town, 4 for Mansfield Town and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Crawley Town 4–1 Mansfield Town — a Crawley Town win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Crawley Town 57% and Mansfield Town 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Mansfield Town 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.05 xG and Mansfield Town 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.703 / defence 1.220 | Mansfield Town attack 1.041 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.264. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mansfield Town's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 7 games and Mansfield Town's last 7.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 24% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 49%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 4.24 | Draw 3.62 | Mansfield Town 2.05. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mansfield Town as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Mansfield Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Mansfield Town 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, matchday 9 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 24% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Crawley Town 1.05 / Mansfield Town 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.703 / def 1.220 | Mansfield Town attack 1.041 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Mansfield Town xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 1 October 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Crawley Town 0 - 2 Mansfield Town.
Where is Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town part of?
Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town is a League One fixture (matchday 9) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 24% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Crawley Town and Mansfield Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (1.04x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 7 games and Mansfield Town's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
24%
4.24
28%
3.62
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.66
1.61
Mansfield Town xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
5%
21.12
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.61 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crawley Town come into this having played 53 games, going 24W 7D 22L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.89 PPG from 53 outings (28W 16D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.89 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Crawley Town's home form reads 12W 4D 10L across their last 26 home games, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.77 points per game from their last 26 away games (13W 7D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.94 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 68%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
Mansfield Town
Early Season
Crawley Town (Home) vs Mansfield Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Early Season
Mansfield Town
Early Season
❓ Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 24W 7D 22L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 28W 16D 9L in their last 53 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.54 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town, the earliest from November 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 28 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won Mansfield Town 4-1 Crawley Town on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crawley Town have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
0
Draws
5
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 3, Mansfield Town have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Mansfield Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 January 2025: Mansfield Town 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Crawley Town, 73% for Mansfield Town — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Crawley Town) and 62% (Mansfield Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Mansfield Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Mansfield Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Crawley Town's games and 73% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crawley Town and Mansfield Town matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Crawley Town's matches and 62% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Crawley Town and Mansfield Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 81% of Mansfield Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mansfield Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Crawley Town 0-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.05 xG and Mansfield Town 1.61 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.70 / defence 1.22 against Mansfield Town attack 1.04 / defence 1.18, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 24% | Draw 28% | Mansfield Town 49%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 57%, Mansfield Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.49 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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