Charlton 0-1 Wycombe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Wycombe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Wycombe travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 January 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton at The Valley this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley.
Across all League One games this season, Wycombe have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wycombe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wycombe's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Charlton are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Charlton, 1 for Wycombe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Wycombe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (23 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Wycombe trading profile (23 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 52% versus Wycombe 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Wycombe 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.30 xG and Wycombe 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.135 / defence 1.004 | Wycombe attack 0.955 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.277. Data: 23 Charlton games / 23 Wycombe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 38% | Draw 27% | Wycombe 35%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Wycombe 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 50% | Wycombe 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Wycombe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 38% | Draw 27% | Wycombe 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Charlton 1.30 / Wycombe 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.135 / def 1.004 | Wycombe attack 0.955 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Charlton (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Wycombe xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Wycombe kick off?
Charlton vs Wycombe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 January 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Wycombe?
Charlton 0 - 1 Wycombe.
Where is Charlton vs Wycombe being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Wycombe part of?
Charlton vs Wycombe is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Wycombe?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 38% chance of winning, Wycombe a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Wycombe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Charlton and Wycombe will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Wycombe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Wycombe?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 0 | Wycombe 1W.
What form are Charlton and Wycombe in?
Charlton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Wycombe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.14x the league average against Wycombe's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wycombe's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.69
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.52
1.23
Wycombe xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Wycombe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Charlton and Wycombe expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Charlton and 1.23 for Wycombe, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Wycombe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 5D 10L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wycombe sit at 1.83 PPG from 23 outings (12W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Wycombe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wycombe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Charlton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Charlton's home form reads 5W 3D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Wycombe have taken 1.42 points per game from 12 outings (4W 5D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wycombe's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Wycombe are on 1.57 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 23 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Wycombe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Wycombe in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 8W 5D 10L in their last 23 games (1.26 PPG), while Wycombe have gone 12W 6D 5L in their last 23 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Wycombe away?
Charlton's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.50 PPG; Wycombe away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Charlton or Wycombe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Wycombe in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2025, when Charlton won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Wycombe specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charlton
3
Draws
3
Wycombe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Wycombe?
From 10 meetings on record, Charlton have won 4, Wycombe have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Wycombe last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Wycombe.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Wycombe?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Wycombe see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 42%, Wycombe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charlton) and 50% (Wycombe).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Wycombe in 33%; Wycombe in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Wycombe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Wycombe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Charlton's recent matches and 50% of Wycombe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Wycombe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charlton's recent games and 50% of Wycombe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Wycombe tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wycombe in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wycombe defy the odds to beat Charlton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wycombe beat Charlton 0-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.30 xG and Wycombe 1.23 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charlton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against Wycombe attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 38% | Draw 27% | Wycombe 35%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Wycombe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Wycombe 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (23 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Wycombe's trading profile (23 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wycombe arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Wycombe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.