Charlton 2-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Shrewsbury fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 45 sees Shrewsbury travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in League One this season, Shrewsbury have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charlton 1.70 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Charlton's 30% rate and Shrewsbury's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Charlton, 1 for Shrewsbury and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Shrewsbury winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 50% versus Shrewsbury 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | Shrewsbury 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.01 xG and Shrewsbury 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.892 / defence 1.284 | Shrewsbury attack 0.769 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.165. Data: 44 Charlton games / 44 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 30% | Draw 33% | Shrewsbury 37%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Shrewsbury 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shrewsbury as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 30% | Shrewsbury 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 30% | Draw 33% | Shrewsbury 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Charlton 1.01 / Shrewsbury 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.892 / def 1.284 | Shrewsbury attack 0.769 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Shrewsbury xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Charlton vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Charlton 2 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Charlton vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Shrewsbury part of?
Charlton vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 30% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Charlton and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Shrewsbury?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 1W.
What form are Charlton and Shrewsbury in?
Charlton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.89x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
30%
3.32
33%
3.05
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.17
1.15
Shrewsbury xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Charlton and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Charlton and 1.15 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 16W 8D 20L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Shrewsbury's form line: 12W 14D 18L from 44 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.27 PPG, Shrewsbury on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L).
On the road, Shrewsbury have gone 3W 7D 12L from 22 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shrewsbury's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 1.07 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 44 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Shrewsbury
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 16W 8D 20L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 12W 14D 18L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Shrewsbury away?
Charlton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.41 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Charlton or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Shrewsbury runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Charlton won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Shrewsbury?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 5, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Shrewsbury?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 36%, Shrewsbury 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Charlton) and 32% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Shrewsbury in 32%; Charlton have failed to score in 27% of games; Shrewsbury in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Charlton's recent matches and 36% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Charlton's recent games and 32% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Shrewsbury 2-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.01 xG and Shrewsbury 1.15 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shrewsbury landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.89 / defence 1.28 against Shrewsbury attack 0.77 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 30% | Draw 33% | Shrewsbury 37%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, Shrewsbury 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.27 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.