Charlton 3-2 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port Vale make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 45. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Charlton (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Charlton's home record at The Valley: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Port Vale away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Charlton's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Charlton register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Port Vale in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Charlton, 1 for Port Vale and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Port Vale winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 53% versus Port Vale 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Port Vale 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 2.25 xG and Port Vale 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.280 / defence 1.228 | Port Vale attack 0.932 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.112. Charlton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 90 Charlton games / 44 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 59% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 21%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Port Vale 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 70% | Port Vale 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 59% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 65% | xG Charlton 2.25 / Port Vale 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.280 / def 1.228 | Port Vale attack 0.932 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Charlton (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Port Vale xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Port Vale kick off?
Charlton vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Port Vale?
Charlton 3 - 2 Port Vale.
Where is Charlton vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Port Vale part of?
Charlton vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 59% chance of winning, Port Vale a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Charlton and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Port Vale?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 1W.
What form are Charlton and Port Vale in?
Charlton (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Port Vale (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.28x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.93x) against Charlton's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 90/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
59%
1.68
20%
5.02
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.52
1.27
Port Vale xG
1.68
59%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
11%
9.50
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
2%
45.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Charlton and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Charlton and 1.27 for Port Vale, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charlton come into this having played 90 games, going 32W 21D 37L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Port Vale sit at 1.46 PPG from 90 outings (37W 20D 33L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Charlton against 1.46 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Charlton's home form reads 18W 11D 16L across 45 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Port Vale have taken 1.36 points per game from 45 outings (17W 10D 18L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.30 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 90 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 32W 21D 37L in their last 90 games (1.30 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 37W 20D 33L in their last 90 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Port Vale away?
Charlton's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.44 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Charlton or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Port Vale in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Charlton
1
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Port Vale?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Port Vale have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Port Vale 3-3 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 51%, Port Vale 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charlton) and 53% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Port Vale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Charlton's recent matches and 56% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charlton's recent games and 53% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Port Vale tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Port Vale 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Port Vale 3-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 45, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 2.25 xG and Port Vale 1.27 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.28 / defence 1.23 against Port Vale attack 0.93 / defence 1.33, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 59% | Draw 20% | Port Vale 21%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Port Vale 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.30 PPG, Port Vale 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Port Vale (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.