Charlton 1-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Peterborough at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 3W 4D 3L at The Valley — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Charlton) versus 1.30 (Peterborough). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Peterborough in-play tendencies (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 52% versus Peterborough 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 45% | Peterborough 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.97 xG and Peterborough 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.175 / defence 1.187 | Peterborough attack 0.952 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.138. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Charlton games / 21 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 53% | Draw 23% | Peterborough 24%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Peterborough 4.17. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 70% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 53% | Draw 23% | Peterborough 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Charlton 1.97 / Peterborough 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.175 / def 1.187 | Peterborough attack 0.952 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Charlton (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Peterborough xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Peterborough kick off?
Charlton vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Peterborough?
Charlton 1 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Charlton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Peterborough part of?
Charlton vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 53% chance of winning, Peterborough a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Charlton and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Peterborough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Peterborough in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Peterborough (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Charlton's attack rating (1.18) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.41
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.25
1.29
Peterborough xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
3%
29.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Charlton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Charlton and 1.29 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 22W 17D 28L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough's form line: 19W 11D 37L from 67 games, 1.01 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.24 PPG, Peterborough on 1.01. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.47 PPG from 34 outings (14W 8D 12L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 6W 3D 25L from 34 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.18 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 67 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 22W 17D 28L in their last 67 games (1.24 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 19W 11D 37L in their last 67 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Peterborough away?
Charlton's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.47 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2025, when Peterborough won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charlton's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Charlton
2
Draws
3
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Peterborough have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2025, when Peterborough 3-0 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 44%, Peterborough 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Charlton) and 68% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Peterborough in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Charlton's recent matches and 50% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Charlton's recent games and 68% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Peterborough tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton and Peterborough share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton and Peterborough finished level at 1-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 23, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.97 xG and Peterborough 1.29 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.18 / defence 1.19 against Peterborough attack 0.95 / defence 1.33, drawn from 67/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 53% | Draw 23% | Peterborough 24%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 45%, Peterborough 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.24 PPG, Peterborough 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.