Charlton 1-2 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Cheltenham at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 1W 1D 3L from 5 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Cheltenham — All Games: 1W 3D 2L from 6 League One fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cheltenham have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charlton 0.80 PPG, Cheltenham 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 40% and Cheltenham 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 40% | Cheltenham 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.13 xG and Cheltenham 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.825 / defence 1.103 | Cheltenham attack 0.995 / defence 1.339. League average goals — home 1.022 / away 0.881. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.339 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Charlton games / 6 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 39% | Draw 30% | Cheltenham 31%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Cheltenham 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 0% | Cheltenham 100%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 39% | Draw 30% | Cheltenham 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Charlton 1.13 / Cheltenham 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.825 / def 1.103 | Cheltenham attack 0.995 / def 1.339 | league avg home 1.022 / away 0.881 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cheltenham xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Cheltenham kick off?
Charlton vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Charlton 1 - 2 Cheltenham.
Where is Charlton vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Cheltenham part of?
Charlton vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 39% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Charlton and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cheltenham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Cheltenham in?
Charlton (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Cheltenham (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.82x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.35
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.09
0.97
Cheltenham xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Charlton and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Charlton and 0.97 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Charlton have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cheltenham's form line: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Cheltenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 0.80 PPG, Cheltenham on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham in 100%.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Cheltenham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Charlton or Cheltenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Cheltenham in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Cheltenham runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Charlton's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Charlton
2
Draws
2
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cheltenham?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Cheltenham have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2024, when Cheltenham 1-3 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Charlton at 40%, Cheltenham at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Charlton) and 60% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Charlton have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Cheltenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Charlton's games and 100% of Cheltenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Charlton's recent games and 60% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cheltenham defy the odds to beat Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.13 xG and Cheltenham 0.97 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cheltenham outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against Cheltenham attack 0.99 / defence 1.34, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 39% | Draw 30% | Cheltenham 31%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cheltenham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 40%, Cheltenham 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Cheltenham's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 0.80 PPG, Cheltenham 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cheltenham conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.