Charlton 1-2 Bristol Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Bristol Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Bristol Rovers travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 December 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bristol Rovers — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bristol Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bristol Rovers's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bristol Rovers are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charlton register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bristol Rovers in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Bristol Rovers trading profile (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 52% versus Bristol Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 44% | Bristol Rovers 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.88 xG and Bristol Rovers 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.232 / defence 1.128 | Bristol Rovers attack 1.101 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.168. Bristol Rovers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Charlton games / 21 Bristol Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 47% | Draw 23% | Bristol Rovers 30%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Bristol Rovers 3.33. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bristol Rovers (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 60% | Bristol Rovers 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Bristol Rovers | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 47% | Draw 23% | Bristol Rovers 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Charlton 1.88 / Bristol Rovers 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.232 / def 1.128 | Bristol Rovers attack 1.101 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Charlton (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Bristol Rovers xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Bristol Rovers kick off?
Charlton vs Bristol Rovers kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 December 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Bristol Rovers?
Charlton 1 - 2 Bristol Rovers.
Where is Charlton vs Bristol Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Bristol Rovers part of?
Charlton vs Bristol Rovers is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Bristol Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 47% chance of winning, Bristol Rovers a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Bristol Rovers?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Charlton and Bristol Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Bristol Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bristol Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Bristol Rovers in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Bristol Rovers (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charlton's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Bristol Rovers's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Bristol Rovers's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.32
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Charlton xG
Total xG
3.33
1.45
Bristol Rovers xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
5%
22.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Bristol Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Charlton and Bristol Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Charlton and 1.45 for Bristol Rovers, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Bristol Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 22W 17D 27L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bristol Rovers's form line: 30W 18D 18L from 66 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Bristol Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.26 PPG, Bristol Rovers on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (14W 7D 11L).
On the road, Bristol Rovers have gone 12W 10D 10L from 32 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bristol Rovers are on 1.55 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Bristol Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Bristol Rovers in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 22W 17D 27L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Bristol Rovers have gone 30W 18D 18L in their last 66 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Bristol Rovers away?
Charlton's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.53 PPG; Bristol Rovers away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Charlton or Bristol Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bristol Rovers in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charlton's record when hosting Bristol Rovers specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Charlton
0
Draws
5
Bristol Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Bristol Rovers?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Bristol Rovers have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Bristol Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2025, when Charlton 2-0 Bristol Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Bristol Rovers?
Bristol Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bristol Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 44%, Bristol Rovers 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Charlton) and 47% (Bristol Rovers).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Bristol Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Bristol Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Charlton's recent matches and 62% of Bristol Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Bristol Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Charlton's recent games and 47% of Bristol Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Bristol Rovers tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bristol Rovers in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bristol Rovers defy the odds to beat Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol Rovers beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.88 xG and Bristol Rovers 1.45 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Charlton fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.23 / defence 1.13 against Bristol Rovers attack 1.10 / defence 1.21, drawn from 66/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 47% | Draw 23% | Bristol Rovers 30%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Bristol Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 44%, Bristol Rovers 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bristol Rovers's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.26 PPG, Bristol Rovers 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bristol Rovers win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.