Cardiff 4-1 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Wimbledon make the trip to Cardiff City Stadium to face Cardiff in League One, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cardiff's overall League One record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 League One appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
AFC Wimbledon have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Cardiff. A 1.00 PPG lead over AFC Wimbledon (2.20 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cardiff have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AFC Wimbledon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cardiff 1W, AFC Wimbledon 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Cardiff winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cardiff — key trading statistics (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 56% versus AFC Wimbledon 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 49% | AFC Wimbledon 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 2.28 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.342 / defence 0.980 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.035 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.151. Cardiff carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Cardiff games / 30 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 62% | Draw 19% | AFC Wimbledon 18%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | AFC Wimbledon 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Cardiff (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 60% | AFC Wimbledon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 62% | Draw 19% | AFC Wimbledon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG Cardiff 2.28 / AFC Wimbledon 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.342 / def 0.980 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.035 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.17
AFC Wimbledon xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon?
Cardiff 4 - 1 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 62% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 1W | Draws 0 | AFC Wimbledon 0W.
What form are Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon in?
Cardiff (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 1.34x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (1.03x) against Cardiff's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
62%
1.60
19%
5.20
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Cardiff xG
Total xG
3.45
1.17
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
10%
9.82
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
2%
53.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.17 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cardiff come into this having played 77 games, going 29W 23D 25L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 1.53 PPG from 77 outings (33W 19D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Cardiff against 1.53 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cardiff's home form reads 20W 7D 12L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 1.36 points per game from 39 outings (14W 11D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.17 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 29W 23D 25L in their last 77 games (1.43 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 33W 19D 25L in their last 77 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Cardiff's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.72 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Cardiff or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cardiff
0
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon?
From 2 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Cardiff 4-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and AFC Wimbledon?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 49%, AFC Wimbledon 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Cardiff) and 41% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Cardiff's recent matches and 46% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Cardiff's recent games and 41% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AFC Wimbledon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat AFC Wimbledon 4-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 2.28 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.17 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 1.34 / defence 0.98 against AFC Wimbledon attack 1.03 / defence 1.23, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 62% | Draw 19% | AFC Wimbledon 18%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 49%, AFC Wimbledon 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.43 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.