Cambridge United 0-1 Derby – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Derby at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambridge United vs Derby encounter.

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Match Analysis

Cambridge United host Derby at Cledara Abbey Stadium in League One (matchday 45). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cambridge United have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Cambridge United have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Derby — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Derby's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derby — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cambridge United have won 0, Derby 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Cambridge United 0–0 Derby — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Cambridge United trading profile (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Derby trading profile (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 42% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 43% | Derby 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cambridge United surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Derby have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 0.78 xG and Derby 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.812 / defence 0.951 | Derby attack 1.098 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.191. Derby bring a tight defence (rating 0.731, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Cambridge United's projected output down. Data: built from Cambridge United's last 89 games and Derby's last 90.

Result probabilities: Cambridge United 23% | Draw 30% | Derby 47%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 4.31 | Draw 3.39 | Derby 2.12. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cambridge United's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambridge United 50% (last 10 home games) | Derby 30% (last 10 away games).

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