Cambridge United 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Charlton (37%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Cambridge United face Charlton.

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Fixture Analysis

Cambridge United welcome Charlton to Cledara Abbey Stadium in League One (matchday 44). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cambridge United have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Cambridge United's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cambridge United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Charlton stand at 4W 6D 0L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Charlton have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Charlton — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Despite the home advantage, Charlton have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Cambridge United.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Cambridge United 2–2 Charlton — a draw.

Charlton have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Patterns

Cambridge United in-play and half-time data (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Charlton in-play and half-time data (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 41% versus Charlton 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 44% | Charlton 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cambridge United surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Charlton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.20 xG and Charlton 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.827 / defence 0.975 | Charlton attack 1.083 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.166. Data: built from Cambridge United's last 87 games and Charlton's last 89.

Result probabilities: Cambridge United 35% | Draw 27% | Charlton 37%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.82 | Draw 3.64 | Charlton 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Cambridge United 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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