Burton Albion 0-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face Crawley Town.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Burton Albion and Crawley Town meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 5 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Current Form

Burton Albion's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Burton Albion have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Crawley Town (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Crawley Town's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.30 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) — Burton Albion have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Crawley Town in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading Data

Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 50% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 52% | Crawley Town 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Burton Albion surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Crawley Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.65 xG and Crawley Town 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.921 / defence 1.406 | Crawley Town attack 0.665 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.202. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.311 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Burton Albion's projected output up. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.665 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Burton Albion's defence rating of 1.406 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crawley Town's projected output up. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 58 games and Crawley Town's last 13.

Result probabilities: Burton Albion 50% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.01 | Draw 4.10 | Crawley Town 3.86. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burton Albion's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 70% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 60% (last 10 away games).

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