Burton Albion 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 11 as Burton Albion welcome Charlton to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 League One matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Charlton's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Burton Albion, 3 for Charlton and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 2–0 with Burton Albion winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Charlton in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 48% versus Charlton 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Charlton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.22 xG and Charlton 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.816 / defence 1.303 | Charlton attack 0.911 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.117. Data: 61 Burton Albion games / 61 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Charlton 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Burton Albion 60% | Charlton 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Burton Albion 1.22 / Charlton 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.816 / def 1.303 | Charlton attack 0.911 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Charlton xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Charlton kick off?
Burton Albion vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Burton Albion vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Charlton part of?
Burton Albion vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 34% chance of winning, Charlton a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Burton Albion and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Charlton?
Record (6 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 2 | Charlton 3W.
What form are Burton Albion and Charlton in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Charlton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 0.82x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.75
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.54
1.33
Charlton xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.33 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burton Albion come into this having played 61 games, going 13W 15D 33L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.18 PPG from 61 outings (16W 24D 21L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 0.89 PPG, Charlton on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Burton Albion's home form reads 8W 6D 17L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 0.90 points per game from 31 outings (5W 13D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.31 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 67%.
Last 61 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Charlton in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 13W 15D 33L in their last 61 games (0.89 PPG), while Charlton have gone 16W 24D 21L in their last 61 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Charlton away?
Burton Albion's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 0.97 PPG; Charlton away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
2
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Charlton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Charlton 3-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 48%, Charlton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Burton Albion) and 39% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 39% of games; Charlton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Burton Albion's games and 64% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Burton Albion's recent games and 39% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Charlton tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Charlton in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.22 xG and Charlton 1.33 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.82 / defence 1.30 against Charlton attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 0.89 PPG, Charlton 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.