Bradford vs Stevenage – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Stevenage travel to Valley Parade to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bradford have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Valley Parade, Bradford have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Stevenage — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bradford 1.20 PPG, Stevenage 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Bradford have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Stevenage have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bradford and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Bradford in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Stevenage in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 54% versus Stevenage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 48% | Stevenage 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.10 xG and Stevenage 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.899 / defence 0.914 | Stevenage attack 0.779 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.273. Data: 50 Bradford games / 50 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 38% | Draw 34% | Stevenage 28%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Stevenage 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bradford 50% | Stevenage 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Valley Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 38% | Draw 34% | Stevenage 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Bradford 1.10 / Stevenage 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.899 / def 0.914 | Stevenage attack 0.779 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Bradford (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Stevenage xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Stevenage kick off?
Bradford vs Stevenage is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Valley Parade.
Where is Bradford vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Valley Parade.
What competition is Bradford vs Stevenage part of?
Bradford vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 38% chance of winning, Stevenage a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bradford and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stevenage?
Record (6 meetings): Bradford 4W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Bradford and Stevenage in?
Bradford (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Stevenage (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.90x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
38%
2.60
34%
2.98
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.01
0.91
Stevenage xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bradford and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Bradford and 0.91 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 24W 11D 17L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bradford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stevenage's form line: 21W 15D 16L from 52 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.60 PPG, Stevenage on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bradford have posted 2.04 PPG from 26 outings (16W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Bradford are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 7W 7D 12L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bradford are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.02 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 24W 11D 17L in their last 52 games (1.60 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 21W 15D 16L in their last 52 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Stevenage away?
Bradford's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.04 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Bradford or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stevenage in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bradford and Stevenage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2021, when Bradford won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bradford's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Bradford
1
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 4, Stevenage have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Bradford 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Stevenage?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bradford see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 50%, Stevenage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bradford) and 42% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Stevenage in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bradford's recent matches and 50% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bradford vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bradford's recent games and 42% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.