Bolton 0-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 38 as Bolton welcome Plymouth to University of Bolton Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Bolton have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at University of Bolton Stadium, Bolton have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bolton Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League One this season, Plymouth have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bolton at 2.00 PPG versus Plymouth's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bolton have won 0, Plymouth 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bolton trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Plymouth trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 37% versus Plymouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 51% | Plymouth 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 2.04 xG and Plymouth 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.368 / defence 0.959 | Plymouth attack 1.178 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.238. Bolton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.368 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Bolton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Bolton games / 35 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 51% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 25%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Plymouth 4.00. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bolton at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral: Bolton 40% | Plymouth 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: University of Bolton Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 51% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Bolton 2.04 / Plymouth 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.368 / def 0.959 | Plymouth attack 1.178 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Bolton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Plymouth xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Plymouth kick off?
Bolton vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at University of Bolton Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Plymouth?
Bolton 0 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Bolton vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at University of Bolton Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Plymouth part of?
Bolton vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 51% chance of winning, Plymouth a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Bolton and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Plymouth?
Record (1 meetings): Bolton 0W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Bolton and Plymouth in?
Bolton (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Plymouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bolton's attack rating (1.37) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Bolton's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
51%
1.94
23%
4.33
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Bolton xG
Total xG
3.43
1.40
Plymouth xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
3%
30.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Bolton and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Bolton and 1.40 for Plymouth, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bolton come into this having played 35 games, going 16W 5D 14L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.77 PPG from 35 outings (18W 8D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bolton on 1.51 PPG, Plymouth on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bolton's home form reads 10W 4D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Bolton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.71 points per game from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Bolton are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.66 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 35 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 16W 5D 14L in their last 35 games (1.51 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 18W 8D 9L in their last 35 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Plymouth away?
Bolton's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 2.00 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Bolton or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Plymouth in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bolton and Plymouth runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bolton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2021, when Plymouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bolton's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bolton
1
Draws
3
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Plymouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Bolton have won 2, Plymouth have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Plymouth 1-2 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 41%, Plymouth 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Bolton) and 59% (Plymouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bolton's recent matches and 65% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Bolton's matches and 59% of Plymouth's.
Do Bolton and Plymouth tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Bolton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Bolton 0-1 at University of Bolton Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 2.04 xG and Plymouth 1.40 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bolton fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.37 / defence 0.96 against Plymouth attack 1.18 / defence 1.30, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 51% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 25%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 51%, Plymouth 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plymouth's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bolton 1.51 PPG, Plymouth 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.