Bolton 0-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bolton vs Accrington ST encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
University of Bolton Stadium plays host to Bolton versus Accrington ST in League One, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off: Tuesday 25 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bolton have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bolton at University of Bolton Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bolton Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bolton are significantly better at University of Bolton Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Accrington ST (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Accrington ST's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Bolton. A 1.20 PPG lead over Accrington ST (1.60 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Bolton have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Accrington ST in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Bolton 2W, Accrington ST 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 3–2 with Bolton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bolton half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 43% versus Accrington ST 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 44% | Accrington ST 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.62 xG and Accrington ST 0.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 0.973 / defence 0.727 | Accrington ST attack 0.560 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.112. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Bolton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bolton's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 89 Bolton games / 89 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 66% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 10%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.52 | Draw 4.00 | Accrington ST 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (66%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Accrington ST's lower xG of 0.45 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 20% | Accrington ST 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: University of Bolton Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 66% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 30% | xG Bolton 1.62 / Accrington ST 0.45 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 0.973 / def 0.727 | Accrington ST attack 0.560 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Bolton (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
0.45
Accrington ST xG
30%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Accrington ST kick off?
Bolton vs Accrington ST kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at University of Bolton Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Accrington ST?
Bolton 0 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Bolton vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at University of Bolton Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Accrington ST part of?
Bolton vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 66% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 10% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Bolton and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Accrington ST?
Record (3 meetings): Bolton 2W | Draws 0 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Bolton and Accrington ST in?
Bolton (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Accrington ST (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bolton's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.56x) against Bolton's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.45.
These ratings are built from 89/89 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 19.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (16.5%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
66%
1.52
25%
4.08
10%
10.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
16.5%
Home win
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Bolton xG
Total xG
2.07
0.45
Accrington ST xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
10.46
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.38
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
64%
1.57
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
42%
2.39
2%
52.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 20.4 | 9.2 | 2.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.5 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Bolton and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Bolton and 0.45 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bolton's recent record stands at 42W 22D 25L from 89 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 26W 21D 42L across 89 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bolton by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Accrington ST heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bolton have managed 25W 12D 7L from 44 games — 1.98 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 8W 10D 26L across 44 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bolton are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.09 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 89 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Current Season
Accrington ST
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 42W 22D 25L in their last 89 games (1.66 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 26W 21D 42L in their last 89 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Accrington ST away?
Bolton's home record (1.98 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.98 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Bolton or Accrington ST been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Accrington ST in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bolton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bolton
0
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Accrington ST?
From 4 meetings on record, Bolton have won 2, Accrington ST have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2023, when Bolton 0-1 Accrington ST.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 41%, Accrington ST 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bolton) and 50% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Bolton keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Accrington ST in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bolton's recent matches and 39% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bolton's recent games and 50% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bolton and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Accrington ST defy the odds to beat Bolton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Bolton 0-1 at University of Bolton Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.62 xG and Accrington ST 0.45 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bolton fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 0.97 / defence 0.73 against Accrington ST attack 0.56 / defence 1.25, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 66% | Draw 25% | Accrington ST 10%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Accrington ST win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 44%, Accrington ST 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Accrington ST's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Accrington ST winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.